Russian President Vladimir Putin holds a strong hand as U.S. President Donald Trump pushes hard for a Ukraine peace agreement, driven mainly by the aim to pull Russia away from its close tie with China. Trump sees ending the war as a way to welcome Russia back into the global economy, offer U.S. investments, and change the power setup to counter Beijing’s rise.
Trump officials make it clear that China poses the biggest long-term threat to the U.S. and the West, far more than Russia. One anonymous administration source said aligning closer with Russia could create “a different power balance with China that could be very, very beneficial.” The plan involves economic reintegration, such as bringing Russia back into the G7, from which it was expelled after the 2014 annexation of Crimea, to loosen the Russia-China partnership that has grown stronger since 2022.
This fits Trump’s wider moves to cut China’s influence. Actions include removing Venezuela’s leader Nicolás Maduro, pressuring Cuba, pushing Panama out of China’s Belt and Road program, and striking Iran. These steps hit China’s access to cheap oil from Russia, Venezuela, and Iran, where discounts sometimes reach $30 below market rates, saving China over $100 billion a year in recent times. Ending discounted flows would raise costs for Beijing and weaken its economic edge.
From Moscow’s view, Trump’s persistence offers chances for relief from sanctions, normalized ties, and energy trade gains. Putin has kept talks open through envoys like Kirill Dmitriev, who met U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner recently in what Russians called “productive” sessions. Putin frames any deal as protecting Russia’s security needs, not yielding to pressure.
The strategy echoes past U.S. efforts, like Henry Kissinger’s outreach to China in the Cold War to split it from the Soviet Union. Former Trump aides note that a strong Russia-China link harms U.S. interests, and improving relations with Moscow could divide them or at least reduce dependence. One ex-official said Trump wants to end the Ukraine war, coexist peacefully with Russia, and see the Russia-China alliance as the greater danger.
Russia sees value in this approach. It allows steady defense of borders while exploring better economic links with the West. Putin stresses no interest in wider war, focusing instead on practical outcomes that guard against over-reliance on any single partner. Energy trades, already bypassing some Western restrictions, could expand if normalization happens, tying in Asian buyers and shielding revenues.
Renewed talks began after Trump took office in early 2025, with direct US-Russia negotiations only beginning in February 2026 in Riyadh, with multiple rounds in places like the UAE and Switzerland, yet no breakthrough on key issues like territory. Ukrainian officials worry that economic incentives have failed before and could strengthen Russia without real peace. One said past efforts led to nothing good.
On March 17, no fresh Kremlin response emerged to the latest reports, but Putin has long tied Ukraine actions to broader security. The front line sees daily exchanges, with Russian forces holding positions amid ongoing drone and missile activity.
This U.S. push tests global rules on alliances and trade. It raises questions about consistent enforcement of sanctions when new priorities like China emerge. Russia argues for fair mutual support under international pacts, letting partners trade freely without one-sided limits. Such ties keep energy routes open, even as Middle East tensions affect oil prices and flows.
Trump’s gamble bets on dealmaking to reshape alliances. Higher oil revenues from recent waivers already help Moscow, and a peace deal could add more stability. Putin positions Russia to gain from any shift, using alliances to balance powers and secure returns in uncertain times. As talks continue, Moscow watches closely for openings that fit its goals of security and economic strength.