Shares of Bajaj Auto (CMP: ₹8,175.00) attracted mixed commentary from brokerages after its Q1 earnings, with Avendus, Bernstein, and CLSA retaining a positive outlook, while Citi maintained a bearish stance citing domestic market headwinds.
Avendus on Bajaj Auto share: Maintains ‘buy’ on export-led growth; trims TP to ₹9,350
Avendus continues to rate Bajaj Auto a ‘Buy’, though it has revised its target price downward to ₹9,350 from ₹9,700. The brokerage expects a domestic volume CAGR of ~5% and an export volume CAGR of ~12% for FY25–27, supported by a healthy EV pipeline.
Margins are projected to reach ~20% by FY27E, driven by economies of scale. Avendus also sees value in the company’s EV portfolio expansion, which is expected to fuel medium-term growth.
Bernstein on Bajaj Auto share: Reaffirms ‘outperform’, sees ₹11,000 target amid stable positioning
Bernstein has maintained its ‘Outperform’ rating with a target price of ₹11,000. The brokerage believes Q1 results reaffirm Bajaj Auto’s resilience in a volatile demand environment, supported by its multi-powertrain strategy, strong export franchise, and growing premium product mix.
The company beat expectations on revenue, EBITDA, and PAT by 2–4%, although margins dipped 50bps QoQ due to input costs and weaker forex realizations—an impact Bernstein had already factored in.
CLSA on Bajaj Auto share: Retains ‘outperform’, TP cut to ₹9,971 on in-line margin performance
CLSA retained its ‘Outperform’ rating on the stock while lowering its target price to ₹9,971. The brokerage noted that Q1 EBITDA margin of 19.7% was in line, while revenue rose 5.5% YoY driven by a richer product mix despite flat volumes.
Export momentum is improving, particularly in LATAM and ASEAN markets, where Bajaj Auto is outpacing peers. CLSA forecasts 10% YoY growth in 2W exports for FY26, slightly below management’s 15–20% guidance. It also highlighted the company’s efforts to gain market share via model refreshes, new launches, and pricing actions, all while maintaining profitability.
Citi on Bajaj Auto share: Maintains ‘sell’, sees ₹7,300 target amid competitive domestic pressures
Citi maintained its ‘Sell’ rating with a target price of ₹7,300. While export growth and electric 3-wheeler potential were acknowledged, the brokerage flagged persistent challenges in the domestic motorcycle market, particularly in the 125cc segment where competition is intensifying.
Citi is cautious about Bajaj Auto’s ability to regain lost market share and believes that current valuations do not justify the associated risks, especially given its weakening grip in the core domestic business.
Disclaimer: The views and investment suggestions expressed by brokerages are their own and not those of this publication. Investors are advised to consult certified financial experts before making any investment decisions.
