Oscar Piastri said it himself after the Qatar Grand Prix — he would “need a lot of things to go in my direction” to remain a genuine contender. And he’s not wrong. Despite rediscovering his peak form and finishing second in Lusail, the Australian enters Abu Dhabi as the mathematical outsider in a three-way title fight.
For Piastri, the path to the 2025 world championship is narrow and brutally difficult. He must finish either first or second, and even then, his fate hinges entirely on disastrous races for both Lando Norris and Max Verstappen.
Even if Piastri wins the race, he cannot be champion unless neither Norris nor Verstappen finish on the podium. That means he will need help from the likes of Mercedes, Ferrari, or even Aston Martin to push his rivals back down the order.
Last year, Norris won in Abu Dhabi — if McLaren’s lead driver repeats that result, Piastri’s campaign ends instantly. And if Verstappen finishes strongly inside the top three, Piastri’s hopes collapse regardless of where he finishes.
In short:
Piastri needs a win or P2, plus chaos for both Norris and Verstappen.
Anything less, and the championship belongs to one of his rivals.
Conditions for Piastri to win the WDC
| Piastri’s finishing position | Norris must finish… | Verstappen must finish… |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | 6th or worse | Eliminated (P4 or worse) |
| 2nd | 10th or worse | 4th or worse |