Thiruvananthapuram, April 29: Exit poll data for the Kerala Assembly Elections 2026 is pointing to a significant shift in the southern state, with the United Democratic Front led by the Indian National Congress emerging ahead of the ruling Left Democratic Front across multiple surveys and demographic groups. Kerala voted in a single phase on April 9, and results will be declared on May 4.
Axis My India’s exit poll data shows the UDF leading across most age groups in Kerala, with an overall vote share of 44%, ahead of the LDF at 39% and the NDA at 14%. If the vote share differential of five percentage points between UDF and LDF translates proportionally into seats in the 140-member Kerala Legislative Assembly — where the majority mark is 71 — it would represent a substantial swing toward the Congress-led alliance and a potentially historic third-consecutive-term defeat for the LDF.
CNN-News18’s data presents a more granular regional picture. North Kerala shows a clear UDF lead, while Central Kerala remains tightly contested between the two fronts. South Kerala sees a close race with a notably stronger NDA presence, making the southern districts — including Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, and Pathanamthitta — critical to the final outcome. The NDA’s 14% vote share, if concentrated in specific pockets of South Kerala, could prove decisive in close contests, potentially acting as a spoiler for the LDF in constituencies where the Left had previously relied on consolidated minority and progressive votes to stay ahead.
Kerala recorded a voter turnout of approximately 78.13% in the April 9 single-phase election, higher than the 74.06% turnout recorded in 2021 and among the highest in the state’s modern electoral history. Political analysts have widely interpreted the elevated turnout as an indicator of anti-incumbency sentiment against the ruling LDF dispensation, a reading consistent with the Axis My India vote share data.
The LDF is attempting something Kerala’s political history has never produced — a third consecutive term. The state has been ruled by the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front since 2016, when it ended the UDF government led by Chief Minister Oommen Chandy, and retained power in 2021 when Pinarayi Vijayan led the LDF to 99 seats against the UDF’s 41. That 2021 outcome confounded most exit polls, which had projected a much closer contest — a cautionary note for reading the 2026 numbers too confidently.
Exit polls in the last three Kerala elections were generally directionally accurate in predicting the winner, though most failed to accurately estimate the scale of the victory. In 2021 in particular, the LDF significantly outperformed projections, winning 99 seats against survey estimates that ranged as conservatively as 68–78. In 2011, the UDF won 72 seats in one of the closest results in the state’s history, with six out of seven surveys having correctly predicted the winner but overestimating the margin.
The UDF’s campaign in 2026 was built around Congress leader V.D. Satheesan’s energetic opposition offensive, centred on corruption allegations against the LDF government, welfare promises under “Indira Guarantees,” and the broader argument that ten years of uninterrupted Left rule had produced fatigue and governance deficits. The LDF countered with its development record, welfare delivery, and Pinarayi Vijayan’s administrative image — though the Chief Minister’s reduced public visibility in the final stages of the campaign sparked speculation about his health and political future.
Key constituencies to watch on May 4 include Dharmadom, where Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan faces Congress’s Abdul Rasheed and BJP’s K. Ranjith; Paravur, where Opposition Leader V.D. Satheesan is contesting; and Vattiyoorkavu, fielding senior Congress leader K. Muraleedharan.
Full agency-wise seat projections are expected to be published through the evening. Results for all 140 seats of the Kerala Assembly Elections 2026 will be declared on May 4.