Kolkata, April 29: The first major exit poll numbers for the West Bengal Assembly Elections 2026 are out, and they point to a dramatic political shift in the state. P-MARQ’s exit poll, released at 6:34 PM IST on Wednesday — shortly after voting concluded in the second and final phase — projects the Bharatiya Janata Party winning a clear majority in the 294-seat West Bengal Legislative Assembly, ending over a decade of Trinamool Congress rule under Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee.
According to P-MARQ’s projections, the BJP is expected to win between 150 and 175 seats, comfortably crossing the majority mark of 148. The Trinamool Congress, which has governed West Bengal since 2011, is projected to finish in the range of 118 to 138 seats — a significant drop from its current strength. The Congress is projected to win between 2 and 6 seats, reflecting its marginal presence in the state’s electoral arithmetic.
If the exit poll projections hold when votes are counted on May 2, it would mark one of the most consequential electoral upsets in West Bengal’s political history. The TMC swept to a third consecutive term in 2021, winning 213 seats and routing the BJP despite the saffron party’s most aggressive campaign in the state to date. A BJP victory in 2026 would therefore represent a complete reversal of that outcome within a single term.
The 2026 West Bengal election was fought on several defining issues — women’s safety and justice in the aftermath of the 2024 RG Kar Medical College rape and murder case, the state’s law and order record, central welfare schemes versus the TMC government’s own flagship programmes such as Lakshmir Bhandar, and the broader anti-incumbency that typically builds over three consecutive terms in office. The BJP made the RG Kar case a central campaign plank, fielding the victim’s mother, Ratna Debnath, as its candidate from Panihati — one of the most emotionally charged contests of this election cycle.
Voting across both phases was marked by widespread allegations of violence, EVM tampering, and intimidation. On Wednesday alone — Phase 2 polling day — incidents were reported from Panihati, Falta, Bally, Khanakul, and several other constituencies. The BJP alleged systematic attempts to block its voters, including ink smeared on EVM buttons and tape placed over the BJP symbol at booths in Panihati. The TMC, meanwhile, accused central forces of lathi-charging women voters in Falta, South 24 Parganas.
Exit polls are projections based on voter surveys conducted at booth exits and carry a margin of error. They do not constitute official results. The actual verdict for all 294 seats of the West Bengal Assembly Elections 2026 will be declared on May 2.