Guwahati, April 29: The P-MARQ exit poll for the Assam Assembly Elections 2026 has projected a comfortable majority for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance, estimating it will win between 82 and 94 seats in the 126-member Assam Legislative Assembly, well above the majority mark of 64. The Congress-led opposition alliance is projected to win between 30 and 40 seats, while Others are expected to account for 1 to 5 seats.
If the projections hold on counting day, the NDA would secure a third consecutive term in Assam — consolidating Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma’s grip on a state the BJP first wrested from the Congress in 2016 after 15 years of opposition rule. The upper end of P-MARQ’s NDA range at 94 seats would represent the alliance’s strongest-ever performance in the state.
The exit poll numbers are broadly consistent with the historical trend of exit polls underestimating NDA performance in Assam. In 2021, the average of all major exit poll projections put NDA at 71 seats and Congress+ at 54 — but the actual result was NDA 75 and Congress+ 50, with most agencies having undershot the NDA tally by 4 seats on average. If a similar pattern holds in 2026, the actual NDA count could land at the higher end of P-MARQ’s projected range or beyond it.
The 2021 contest saw the NDA win 75 of 126 seats against a Congress-led grand alliance that had generated considerable pre-poll momentum. The 2016 election, which marked the BJP’s historic breakthrough in Assam, saw the party and its allies cross the majority mark despite most exit polls projecting between 79 and 93 seats for the NDA — a range that ultimately proved accurate in directional terms even if the precise seat count varied.
Assam’s 2026 election was fought on familiar axes — citizenship and migration, development versus identity politics, and the NDA’s welfare delivery record against Congress’s attempt to consolidate minority and anti-incumbency votes. Himanta Biswa Sarma, one of India’s most dominant regional chief ministers, led the NDA campaign with his characteristic aggression, while the Congress struggled to present a unified and credible alternative.
Exit polls are projections based on voter surveys and carry an inherent margin of error. The actual results for the Assam Assembly Elections 2026 will be declared on May 2.