Gift Nifty jumped 1% to 24,665 — up 245 points — as of 6:44 PM IST on Friday, signalling a strong gap-up open for Indian benchmark indices when markets resume on Monday, after Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi declared the Strait of Hormuz completely open to all commercial vessels and Donald Trump confirmed the development with a public thank you on Truth Social.
The move in Gift Nifty follows a already-strong closing session on the NSE and BSE. The Sensex ended Friday’s regular session up 504.86 points or 0.65% at 78,493.54, and the Nifty closed 156.80 points or 0.65% higher at 24,353.55, led by broad-based buying in FMCG and metals with the rupee strengthening against the dollar through the session. The Hormuz announcement landed after the Indian cash market closed — meaning everything that has happened since 6:15 PM IST is being priced into Gift Nifty now and will flow into Monday’s open.
What the Global Indices Are Saying
The global reaction to the Hormuz opening has been uniformly positive across every major market. Dow Jones Futures are up 567 points or 1.17% to 49,146. Germany’s DAX is leading European gains at 2.28%, adding 549 points to 24,704. France’s CAC is up 2.16% at 8,441. The FTSE is up 0.53% at 10,646. Every major index on the screen is green and the direction of travel is unambiguous — global equity markets are pricing the Hormuz opening as a genuine step toward conflict resolution and the oil crash as a structural positive for growth and inflation across import-dependent economies.
Gift Nifty’s 1% gain at 24,665 against the cash close of 24,353 implies a Monday opening gap of approximately 310 points from Friday’s Nifty close, though the actual open will be shaped by whatever developments emerge over the weekend from the Pakistan-mediated diplomatic track and any further statements from Washington or Tehran.
Why Indian Markets Are Particularly Leveraged to This Development
India sits at the intersection of every positive consequence the Hormuz opening creates. As one of the world’s largest crude importers, India has been absorbing the full cost of the supply shock since February 28 — elevated crude prices, a weakened rupee, compressed margins for oil marketing companies, higher input costs across manufacturing, and persistent inflation pressure that prevented the RBI from cutting rates as aggressively as domestic growth conditions might have warranted.
Each of those headwinds reverses with sustained lower oil. Brent at $91 versus $100-plus is an immediate and meaningful improvement in India’s current account arithmetic. The rupee, which had weakened to near ₹95 per dollar before recovering to ₹93.23 on earlier ceasefire optimism, has fresh momentum to strengthen further. FPI outflows of ₹1.27 lakh crore in 2026 reflect the risk-off environment that the war created — a credible path to conflict resolution reverses that flow and brings institutional money back into Indian equities.
Nifty has already recovered significantly from its March 2026 lows — the worst monthly fall since March 2020 — posting a near 6% weekly gain the week before and a further 1.3% gain this week. Monday’s opening, if Gift Nifty levels hold through the weekend, would extend that recovery meaningfully and push Nifty decisively through the 24,320 to 24,350 resistance zone that technical analysts had identified as the key hurdle to further upside.
The Sectors to Watch on Monday
Energy and oil-linked stocks face a complex opening. Oil marketing companies including Indian Oil, BPCL and HPCL benefit from lower crude on their marketing margins but face inventory losses on crude held at higher prices — the net effect will be debated by the market through Monday’s session. Paint companies, tyre manufacturers, aviation stocks and consumer staples — all of which have been squeezed by elevated input costs — open with a structural tailwind.
FMCG, which led Friday’s regular session gains, has further room to run if the oil price decline is sustained. Metals, which also contributed to Friday’s rally, will trade on the twin factors of lower energy costs and the broader risk-on sentiment that the Hormuz opening has triggered globally.
The single most important variable for Monday is whether the weekend produces a ceasefire extension or a second round of US-Iran talks that gives markets confidence the Hormuz opening will outlast the current ceasefire period. If it does, Gift Nifty’s 1% indication is a floor rather than a ceiling. If the diplomatic track stalls over the weekend, some of Friday evening’s gains will be given back at the open.
Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir meets Araghchi again on Saturday. Trump said amazing two days. Day two is tomorrow.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Market levels are subject to rapid change given the developing geopolitical situation. Readers are advised to consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making investment decisions.