Spain’s Foreign Minister announced on Thursday that Madrid is reopening its embassy in Tehran, a diplomatic signal that will be read in some quarters as a vote of confidence in the ceasefire and in others as a premature normalisation of a situation that remains, by almost every measurable indicator, deeply unstable.
The embassy reopening is symbolically significant. Spain was among the countries that evacuated or suspended diplomatic missions in Tehran as the conflict escalated following the February 28 strikes, with the security environment across the Iranian capital — which absorbed heavy strikes on Tehran, Mehrabad airport, IRGC bases, residential units, and intelligence facilities — making normal diplomatic operations untenable. That Madrid is now prepared to send its diplomats back into that environment is a statement of sorts about where Spain believes the trajectory of the conflict is heading.
But the facts on the ground on Thursday tell a more complicated story. Iran’s army spokesman declared hours earlier that Trump and the Americans had proven unworthy of trust and that Tehran’s finger remained on the trigger. Israeli airstrikes continued across southern Lebanon, with the IDF formally committing to ongoing strikes to bolster front-line defences. The Strait of Hormuz saw just four dry cargo ships cross in the previous 24-hour window. US officials told the Wall Street Journal that resuming military strikes on Iran has not been ruled out. The Islamabad talks are underway but operating under acute pressure, with Iran having claimed three ceasefire violations on day one and threatening to walk out entirely.
For the question of whether Iran is actually safe, the honest answer on April 9 is that it depends entirely on what happens in Islamabad in the next 48 hours. The ceasefire has stopped the largest and most intense phase of US and Israeli strikes on Iranian soil, and that pause has genuine value for civilians in Tehran and other cities that absorbed weeks of bombardment. Iranian universities, hospitals, and civilian infrastructure were struck during the conflict — the Iranian Red Crescent recorded over 10,000 civilian sites damaged — and any halt to that, however fragile, represents an improvement in immediate physical safety for ordinary Iranians.
But fragile is the operative word. The ceasefire is two days old and already under strain from multiple directions simultaneously. Iran has not stood down its military posture. Israel has not stopped striking Lebanon. The US has not withdrawn its military assets from the region. The Strait of Hormuz, which Iran controls as its primary strategic lever, is functionally closed. And the French Foreign Minister is demanding Iran abandon its nuclear programme entirely, a condition Tehran has already indicated it will not accept.
Spain’s embassy reopening is a diplomatic bet that the ceasefire holds and that Islamabad produces something durable. It may prove prescient. On April 9, it is also a bet being placed before the odds are clear.