The critical question now is what the future holds for the region, the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and the major global powers.
The recent attack by Iran, which was carried out slowly and gave Israel and its allies ample time to react, has been seen by some experts as more symbolic than a real threat. Nonetheless, it provided Iran with an opportunity to test Israel’s defense abilities, observe which countries would support Israel, and assess the reactions of other regional powers and groups to an Iranian assault.
Israeli military intelligence reports that both Jordan and Saudi Arabia backed Israel in its defense efforts. These two kingdoms, which are strong allies of the US, have different relations with their neighbors: Jordan shares a border with Israel, and there is notable tension with Iran’s Shi’a-led government and Jordan is working on improving its relationships with other Arab countries who has similar Sunni Muslim beliefs.
Masoud Mostajabi, the deputy director of the Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council, warns that if the situation worsens into a broader conflict between Israel and Iran, regional players seen as supporting Israel might be attacked and pulled into a larger regional crisis, according to a report by GZero Media.
U.S. President Joe Biden is advising Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to consider the situation resolved and avoid further retaliation. However, Israel might use the recent attack as justification to target Iran’s nuclear facilities or other military sites.
Netanyahu’s government is split on how to respond. Some hardliners, like National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, are pushing for a strong reaction, suggesting Israel should take drastic measures. Meanwhile, Netanyahu’s opponent, Benny Gantz, believes Israel should respond to Iran strategically, at a time and in a manner that benefits Israel. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant sees this as a chance for Israel to strengthen strategic partnerships with countries such as the United States and Germany.
According to reports in Hebrew-language media, the decision on how to respond has been left to the war cabinet, which includes only Gantz, Netanyahu, and Gallant. A hint at their potential approach came on Sunday when Gantz emphasized the importance of reinforcing the “strategic alliance and regional cooperation” that helped Israel counter Iran’s assault, as reported by GZero Media.
Greg Brew, an analyst from Eurasia Group, explains that Israel is considering its response options, including the possibility of direct strikes on Iran. However, the war cabinet seems to be divided on the approach. Brew suggests that if Israel chooses to bomb Iran in retaliation for Saturday’s attack, it could intensify the conflict and might provoke Iran to strike back again, potentially with less warning and less control, as reported by GZero Media.
Iran has stated that its allies will continue attacking until the conflict in Gaza concludes, but there is no clear end to the war in sight. On Sunday, Hamas turned down the most recent peace proposal, which was put forward a week earlier by mediators from Qatar, Egypt, and the United States.
Ian Bremmer, president of GZERO Media and Eurasia Group, commented that the Iranian attack will shift attention away from the conflict in Gaza. However, he noted that this does not significantly improve Israel’s global image or solve its diplomatic challenges. Bremmer also mentioned that this situation might reduce the immediate pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu regarding his position at home.
The US has expressed its desire to avoid further conflicts. President Biden also informed Prime Minister Netanyahu that the US will not be involved in any attacks against Iran.
The G7 (a group of seven powerful countries) released a statement expressing their support for Israel and criticizing Iran. They emphasized the importance of preventing any major regional conflicts. The G7 called on Iran and its allied groups to stop their attacks and warned that they are prepared to take additional steps if further destabilizing actions occur.
The G7 consists of the following seven powerful countries:
Iran has stated that its conflict with Israel has entered a new phase and warned that if Netanyahu responds to the recent attack, a much larger attack could follow.
Bremmer believes that although this situation is unlikely to lead to World War III, the chances are increasing that it could escalate and involve the United States and Iran more directly.
(Views expressed in the article are of author’s own and do not reflect the editorial stance of Business Upturn)