As per the researchers at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, it has been said that the worst of the Coronavirus pandemic is yet to come. Without a vaccine or a cure, India might witness a big surge in the positive cases in the coming months. India could be the worst-affected country in the world with 2.87 lakh cases per day by the end of winter 2021, according to the study.
The MIT study has been conducted by TY Lim, Hazhir Rahmandad and John Sterman of MIT’s Sloan School of Management. In the coming future, the United States will witness 95,400 cases per day, South Africa at 20,600 cases, Iran at 17,000 cases, Indonesia at 13,200 cases, the United Kingdom with 4,200 cases, Nigeria and Turkey at 4,000 cases each, and France at 3,000 cases.
By spring 2021, the world may witness 249 million cases and 1.75 million deaths in the 84 countries in the absence of vaccination and treatment, according to the study.
The study added, “future outcomes are less dependent on testing and more contingent on the willingness of communities and governments to reduce transmission.”
To predict these numbers, the MIT researchers used the SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious and Recovered) model, which is a mathematical model used by epidemiologists for analysis purpose.
Source: Livemint
