A Morgan Stanley research chart circulating among analysts and investors on Wednesday tells a story about India’s fuel price management during the Iran war that is more striking in visual form than any single statistic can capture. Every major Asia-Pacific economy in the table has seen significant increases in petrol and diesel prices since the conflict began on February 28, 2026. Some have seen increases of 20 to 30 percent. Some have seen increases of 40 to 60 percent. The Philippines has seen diesel prices more than double. Malaysia’s petrol has gone up 49 percent.
India’s petrol price change since the start of the war: 0 percent. India’s diesel price change since the start of the war: 0 percent.
That zero is not a rounding error. It is a policy choice, and it is costing the Indian government thousands of crores of rupees every single day.
The Country-by-Country Picture
The Morgan Stanley data, sourced from MC, JEPX, KPX, IEX, IEMOP, Taipower, EPPO, ERC, EVN, Single Buyer Malaysia, ST Malaysia, PLN, company data, CEIC, Caltex, Esso, Pertamina, and Morgan Stanley Research, shows pre-conflict and latest fuel prices across major Asia-Pacific economies.
Japan has seen petrol rise 2 percent and diesel rise 4 percent from pre-conflict levels, modest increases reflecting both government intervention and Japan’s energy hedging mechanisms. Power prices in Japan have risen 17 percent.
Korea has seen petrol rise 10 percent and diesel rise 16 percent. Power prices up 5 percent.
China has seen petrol rise 23 percent and diesel rise 25 percent, significant increases that reflect Beijing’s decision to allow most of the global oil price shock to pass through to its domestic market rather than absorb it on government balance sheets. Power prices up just 5 percent.
Taiwan has seen petrol rise 17 percent and diesel rise 15 percent. Power prices unchanged at 0 percent.
Australia has seen petrol rise 40 percent from $1.24 per litre to $1.74 per litre and diesel rise an extraordinary 71 percent from $1.24 to $2.12 per litre. As a large energy-exporting economy that allows fuel prices to track global markets, Australia has passed the full impact of the Iran war’s oil price shock directly to consumers. Power prices are down 5 percent, reflecting Australia’s domestic renewable and gas generation mix.
Singapore has seen petrol rise 21 percent and diesel rise 27 percent. Power prices up 44 percent, the highest power price increase in the table, reflecting Singapore’s deep dependence on imported energy for electricity generation.
The Philippines presents the most dramatic numbers in the table. Petrol is up 63 percent from $0.98 to $1.60 per litre. Diesel has risen 107 percent from $0.96 to $1.99 per litre, more than doubling in five weeks. Power prices are up 49 percent. As a heavily import-dependent archipelago economy with limited ability to absorb global energy shocks through fiscal intervention, the Philippines has been among the hardest hit countries in Asia by the Iran war’s commodity price impact.
Thailand has seen petrol rise 34 percent and diesel rise 30 percent. Power up 2 percent.
Vietnam has seen petrol rise 24 percent and diesel rise 87 percent. Power up 5 percent.
Malaysia has seen petrol rise 49 percent from $0.65 to $0.97 per litre and diesel rise 82 percent from $0.76 to $1.38 per litre. Malaysia, which has historically subsidised fuel heavily, has been forced to allow significant price increases despite its domestic oil production through Petronas. Power prices up 12 percent.
Indonesia has seen petrol rise just 4 percent and diesel rise 7 percent. Power prices unchanged. As a major oil and gas producer through Pertamina, Indonesia has more fiscal capacity to absorb global price shocks than most of its neighbours.
And India: 0 percent on petrol. 0 percent on diesel. Power up 17 percent.
What India Is Doing to Hold That Zero
The zero percent change in Indian petrol and diesel prices since the conflict began is not an accident of market forces. It is the result of a series of deliberate and expensive government interventions disclosed in detail by Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and Union Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri earlier today.
Excise duties on petrol and diesel have been significantly reduced, with petrol excise brought down to Rs 3 per litre and diesel excise reduced to nil. Export duties of Rs 21.5 per litre on diesel have been imposed to ensure domestically refined diesel stays in India rather than being exported at a profit while domestic consumers face a shortage. Oil Marketing Companies are absorbing losses of approximately Rs 24 per litre on petrol and Rs 30 per litre on diesel at current crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, losses that the government is helping offset through direct fiscal support.
Puri explicitly contextualised India’s position in global terms earlier today, noting that fuel prices have increased by approximately 30 to 50 percent in Southeast Asian countries, 30 percent in North American countries, 20 percent in Europe, and 50 percent in African countries. The Morgan Stanley chart now puts precise numbers on the Southeast Asian comparisons that Puri referenced.
The Price India Is Paying to Hold the Zero
The zero in the India column of the Morgan Stanley table is perhaps the most expensive zero in the country’s economic history. Every day that crude oil trades above the pre-conflict level of approximately $70 per barrel at its current level of approximately $100 to $115 per barrel, the gap between what fuel costs to produce and refine and what Indian consumers pay at the pump widens further. That gap is being filled by OMC balance sheets and government fiscal support.
The cumulative OMC losses on domestic LPG alone are projected at Rs 40,484 crore by end of May. The petrol and diesel losses add tens of thousands of crores more. The ATF domestic price cap adds further OMC losses. The government has made a clear and explicit choice to absorb the Iran war’s energy cost impact across every fuel category rather than passing it to Indian consumers.
The Philippines consumer paying 107 percent more for diesel than five weeks ago is experiencing the alternative. Malaysia’s consumer paying 82 percent more for diesel is experiencing the alternative. Australia’s consumer paying 71 percent more for diesel is experiencing the alternative.
India’s consumer is experiencing the government’s balance sheet absorbing the difference. That choice has a fiscal cost that will need to be reckoned with when the conflict ends and the full accounting of subsidies, excise foregone, and OMC losses is compiled. For now, the pump price at every petrol station in India remains where it was on February 27, the day before the war began.
The zero in the table is holding. At extraordinary cost. By deliberate design.
Data sourced from Morgan Stanley Research chart citing MC, JEPX, KPX, IEX, IEMOP, Taipower, EPPO, ERC, EVN, Single Buyer Malaysia, ST Malaysia, PLN, company data, CEIC, Caltex, Esso, Pertamina, and Morgan Stanley Research. Ministerial statements sourced from official Government of India communications dated April 1, 2026. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.