Goldman Sachs has maintained a ‘Neutral’ rating on BSE Ltd, with a target price of ₹2,490, citing near-term risks tied to regulatory developments and stagnation in derivatives market share.
The brokerage noted that BSE shares have declined 10% over the past four sessions, primarily due to a fall in index options premiums — a key revenue source for the exchange.
Goldman pointed out that BSE’s market share in index options has plateaued at 23–24% in recent months, after a rapid rise from nearly zero over the past two years. This stagnation comes at a time when the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) is evaluating a proposal to standardize the expiry day for derivatives contracts.
According to Goldman, if SEBI mandates all contracts to expire on Thursday — as is the case with NSE — BSE could lose approximately 3 percentage points of market share, translating to a 13% drop in average daily volumes (ADP) and posing an estimated 8% downside risk to EPS.
However, if BSE is allowed to retain its Tuesday expiry, the exchange’s market share is likely to remain stable.
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