OPEC+ is likely to approve an oil production quota increase at its Sunday meeting, with quotas expected to rise by 206,000 barrels per day, excluding the United Arab Emirates’ 18,000 bpd share, according to sources cited in recent reporting.
The proposed move would continue the group’s cautious return of supply after earlier adjustments and pauses. The eight-member OPEC+ coalition has already been managing output in measured steps, citing low oil inventories and a stable global economic outlook in previous decisions.
The reported increase comes as producers remain under pressure to balance market stability with geopolitical risk. Earlier OPEC+ statements noted that the group would keep flexibility to pause or reverse production changes if market conditions shifted. The latest proposal appears to follow that same approach, allowing for a modest increase without a broader, faster unwind of cuts.
The UAE’s share is expected to be excluded from the reported 206,000 bpd figure, leaving the increase to be distributed among the other participating members. That detail has drawn attention because the UAE’s quota has been a sensitive issue in past OPEC+ negotiations.
The meeting is being closely watched by oil traders and energy analysts because even a relatively small quota change can affect price expectations when global supply is already being shaped by conflict risks and shipping disruptions in the region. Market participants are also watching how the group balances its response to demand conditions with ongoing regional tensions.
If confirmed on Sunday, the move would signal that OPEC+ still prefers gradual adjustments rather than a sharp shift in output policy. For now, the expected increase points to a modest easing of supply restraints rather than a major change in the alliance’s overall strategy.