The ceasefire between the United States and Iran was supposed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Instead, it has made things worse.
Ship tracking data shows just four vessels passed through the strait on Wednesday, down from 11 on Tuesday, a collapse in traffic that came not despite the ceasefire but in direct response to the conditions Iran has attached to it. The waterway, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies normally flows, is moving less cargo now than it did during some of the most intense days of the conflict.
Iran has made its position explicit. The ceasefire agreement, Tehran insists, does not mean the strait reverts to free and open international passage. It means Iran maintains control. Vessels seeking to transit will be required to obtain permission from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and pay a fee for the privilege. Within hours of the ceasefire deal being announced, Iran halted oil tanker passage through the strait in response to continued Israeli strikes on Lebanon. In a joint statement, the IRGC’s naval and aerospace forces said the moves showed Iran would keep its finger on the trigger throughout the two-week pause, with US-Iran talks scheduled for Friday in Pakistan.
For the global shipping industry, the practical reality is one of paralysis. Shipowners and operators are neither confident enough to send vessels through nor receiving clear enough guidance on what compliance with Iran’s new terms would actually look like in practice.
SV Anchan, chief executive of Safesea Shipping, described the current situation as a waiting situation. His vessel Safesea Vishnu was struck by an Iranian attack on March 11 and damaged beyond repair, with one crew member killed in the incident. Anchan said that if the agreement was truly meant to guarantee safe passage, the conditions of that passage needed to be spelled out unambiguously before owners would feel comfortable sending ships through.
Erik Hånell, chief executive of Stena Bulk, which has multiple tankers currently inside the Gulf, said the situation felt very fragile and that operators were seeking real guarantees before moving their vessels. How any formal permission and payment arrangement with the IRGC would be structured, he added, remained entirely unclear.
The implications for India are direct and severe. India imports over 85% of its crude oil requirements and is one of the largest buyers of Gulf energy. The Strait of Hormuz is the single most critical chokepoint in India’s energy supply chain. With MCX crude trading up 2.22% at Rs 9,058 per barrel on Thursday morning, and Brent having already touched above $115 during the peak of the conflict, any prolonged stalling of Hormuz traffic will translate into sustained upward pressure on Indian energy import costs, the current account deficit, and retail fuel prices. The rupee, which hit a record low of 95 per dollar earlier in 2026, remains exposed to any fresh deterioration in the energy trade balance.
The broader geopolitical picture is that Iran has used the ceasefire not to stand down but to institutionalise its leverage. Requiring IRGC permission and payment for strait passage would represent a fundamental and permanent shift in the terms of international maritime navigation through one of the world’s most consequential waterways. Whether the United States, which has declared it will keep ships and military personnel in and around Iran until full compliance with a real agreement, will accept such an arrangement as consistent with the ceasefire terms is a question that Friday’s talks in Islamabad are unlikely to resolve cleanly.
The two-week clock on the ceasefire is running. The strait, for now, is not.