The second round of US-Iran talks in Islamabad has effectively collapsed before it began. In a rapid sequence of breaking developments confirmed by First Squawk citing AP and Tasnim News, the United States has put Iran negotiations on hold as the ceasefire deadline approaches, Vice President JD Vance has cancelled his planned trip to Pakistan, and Iran has confirmed it will not attend Wednesday’s talks in Islamabad.
Both sides have warned they are prepared to resume fighting if no deal is reached. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Pakistani officials are making last-minute efforts to revive negotiations and secure a second round of talks — but as of this moment, there is no round to secure.
The Three Breaking Headlines That Change Everything
Tasnim News, Iran’s semi-official news agency, reported that Iran will not attend Wednesday’s Pakistan talks, citing a source — the clearest statement yet from the Iranian side that Tehran has pulled out of the second round entirely.
AP News confirmed that Vance has called off his trip to Pakistan — meaning the American delegation is also not going. The trip that had been confirmed by the White House, that had been built up through days of Pakistani mediation, that both sides had signalled readiness for as recently as Tuesday morning, is cancelled.
First Squawk then summarised the full situation: the US has put Iran negotiations on hold as the ceasefire deadline approaches, with Vance cancelling the Pakistan trip and Tehran yet to confirm participation in further talks. Both sides have warned they are prepared to resume fighting if no deal is reached.
The Ceasefire Deadline and What Comes Next
The ceasefire expires at 4:50 AM Pakistan Standard Time on April 22 — which is approximately 1:20 AM IST on April 22. That deadline is now effectively at hand or already passed. Trump had told CNBC earlier on Tuesday that he does not plan to extend the ceasefire. Iran’s top negotiator had warned Tehran will not negotiate “under the shadow of threat” and has prepared “new cards on the battlefield.”
With Vance not travelling to Pakistan and Iran not sending a delegation, the diplomatic track that has been the only thing preventing a resumption of full-scale hostilities since April 8 is now without a scheduled meeting, without a venue, and without a confirmed time for further engagement.
Pakistan’s last-minute efforts through Shehbaz Sharif and other officials represent the only remaining thread. Whether those efforts can produce a surprise reversal — an emergency ceasefire extension, a back-channel commitment to talks at a later date, or some other formula that prevents the shooting from restarting — is the only question that matters in the next few hours.
What Triggered the Final Breakdown
The proximate cause of the collapse is the USS Spruance seizure of the Iranian-flagged cargo vessel M/V Touska on Sunday, April 19, in the north Arabian Sea. Iran cited that seizure as a ceasefire violation and withdrew from the Monday talks. The US maintained the blockade was lawful enforcement of its naval interdiction. Neither side blinked.
Behind that specific incident lies the fundamental structural impasse that neither the first Islamabad round nor any subsequent back-channel communication has bridged — the naval blockade of Iranian ports versus Hormuz access, and uranium enrichment versus zero enrichment. Both remain exactly where they were when the first round collapsed on April 12.
Market Implications
The collapse of the second round before it began is the worst possible outcome for global markets heading into Wednesday’s Asian open. Crude oil, which had partially recovered from Friday’s 11% crash, will surge on resumption-of-war risk. Brent could push back above $100 and WTI could recover toward $93-95. Gift Nifty’s gap-up open that had been anticipated on Iran deal optimism reverses to a gap-down on war resumption risk.
For India, the entire benefit of the Hormuz opening — lower crude, stronger rupee, OMC margin relief — is now back in question. The ceasefire is expired. The talks are off. Both sides say they are ready to fight.
Pakistan is making its last-ditch effort. The next few hours will determine whether this is a temporary breakdown or the end of the diplomatic track entirely.
Business Upturn is monitoring this situation continuously and will update as further developments emerge.
Disclaimer: This article is based on breaking reports from First Squawk, AP News and Tasnim News. Geopolitical situations are subject to rapid change. Readers are advised to follow official government communications for the most current verified information.