Markets are rattling violently as of 1:30 AM IST on April 22 after Vice President JD Vance cancelled his planned trip to Pakistan, Iran confirmed it will not attend Wednesday’s Islamabad talks, and the United States put Iran negotiations on hold hours before the two-week ceasefire expires. The commodity market reaction is immediate, sharp and simultaneous across three asset classes in three different directions — all triggered by a single cancelled flight.
Brent crude is up 7.03% to $101.97. Gold is down 3.02% to $4,677. Silver is down 5.11% to $75.65.
What Happened
AP News confirmed Vance has called off his Pakistan trip. Tasnim News reported Iran will not send a delegation to Wednesday’s Islamabad talks. First Squawk confirmed the US has put Iran negotiations on hold. Both sides have warned they are prepared to resume fighting as the ceasefire expires at approximately 8:00 PM Eastern on Wednesday — 1:30 AM IST Thursday.
The second round of talks that Pakistan had spent days building toward, that the White House had confirmed and that both Iranian and American aircraft had reportedly been heading toward, has collapsed before a single conversation was held.
Crude: Up 7.03% to $101.97 — The War Premium Is Back
Brent was at $96.09 at 2:53 PM IST on Tuesday afternoon, before the talk collapse news hit. It has since surged to $102.07 — a $6 move in under 12 hours. The oil market has done exactly what it did on Friday evening in reverse. On Friday, the Hormuz opening drove an 11% crash as the war premium was priced out. Tonight, the ceasefire collapse is driving a 7% surge as that exact war premium is priced back in.
The Strait of Hormuz — through which 20 million barrels per day flowed before the war — remains under IRGC “strict control.” The US naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in force. With talks off and the ceasefire expiring, the supply disruption that drove Brent above $100 since February 28 has no near-term resolution. The market is pricing accordingly.
Gold: Down 3.02% to $4,677 — The Peace Trade Unwinds
Gold’s fall alongside crude’s rise is the counterintuitive move that requires explanation. Gold had surged to near $4,900 on Friday’s Hormuz opening — not as a war hedge but as a monetary trade. Lower oil meant lower inflation expectations, lower real rates, and higher gold through the standard monetary transmission mechanism. That entire thesis has now reversed. Higher oil means higher inflation, higher real rate expectations, and pressure on non-yielding gold. Simultaneously, the dollar is strengthening on war-related safe-haven flows — a direct headwind for dollar-denominated gold. At $4,677, gold is losing its peace trade premium in real time.
Silver: Down 5.11% to $75.65 — The Biggest Loser of the Night
Silver is falling faster than gold for a precise structural reason — it had more to lose. When the Hormuz opened on Friday, silver outperformed gold by 2.2 percentage points because its industrial demand story — solar panels, EVs, electronics — benefited from the lower shipping and manufacturing costs that a Hormuz opening enables. Tonight that industrial demand premium is being unwound simultaneously with the monetary premium that gold is also losing. Silver is carrying two losses at once. Gold is carrying one. The 5.11% versus 3.02% differential is not noise — it is the market correctly pricing the difference between a purely monetary metal and a metal with a large industrial demand component in a war-resumption environment.
Pakistan’s Last Stand and What It Means for Markets
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and his officials are still making last-minute efforts to revive talks. The ceasefire expires at 1:30 AM IST Thursday. If Pakistan can produce a surprise ceasefire extension or a commitment to delayed talks in the next few hours, crude will reverse sharply lower and precious metals will recover. If the ceasefire expires without extension and military operations resume, $110 Brent becomes the next reference point analysts will cite.
Everything tonight depends on whether Pakistan’s phones are ringing and whether anyone on the other end is listening.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All commodity prices are subject to rapid change given the developing geopolitical situation. Readers are advised to consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making investment decisions.