Silver futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) surged over 4% to Rs 246,222 per kg, tracking a sharp rebound in global silver prices ahead of key U.S. inflation data.
International silver prices jumped nearly 4% as investors repositioned ahead of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. The move comes in a week marked by mixed macro signals. While strong non-farm payroll data had initially dampened hopes of aggressive rate cuts, markets are not fully convinced that the U.S. Federal Reserve will stay firmly on hold.
Year-end rate cut expectations have climbed to around 59 basis points, up from 48 basis points last week, indicating that traders are increasingly pricing in policy easing. The shift in rate expectations appears partly linked to broader equity market volatility, particularly in technology and software stocks, where concerns over AI-driven disruption and potential layoffs have triggered sharp sell-offs.
Investors now await CPI data, where headline inflation is expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year. Core CPI is also seen at 0.3% monthly and 2.5% annually. Any softer-than-expected print could reinforce expectations of rate cuts, which typically support non-yielding assets like silver.
The sharp uptick in global prices has directly lifted MCX silver, resulting in the 4% rally in domestic futures.