OCBC has revised its gold price target sharply higher, projecting the precious metal to reach $5,600 per ounce by the end of 2026, up from its earlier forecast of $4,800 per ounce, the bank said on Tuesday.
The upward revision comes against the backdrop of recent sharp price gains and sustained structural demand, rather than a fundamental shift in OCBC’s core market view. Gold prices are already up around 17% so far in 2026, with prices remaining elevated despite periodic pullbacks, indicating strong underlying support.
According to OCBC, gold is now being supported less by isolated event-driven risks and more by a persistent backdrop of uncertainty, which continues to encourage diversification into non-sovereign assets. The bank noted that current gold prices carry a clear premium that cannot be fully explained by traditional macro drivers, such as real yields, the US dollar, ETF flows, market volatility, or standard measures of policy uncertainty.
This unexplained premium, OCBC said, suggests that a material geopolitical and uncertainty component is now embedded in gold prices. Unlike past cycles, this support is not tied to short-term shocks but reflects ongoing concerns around geopolitical tensions, policy unpredictability, and broader confidence in the US dollar.
The bank added that the underlying drivers of the gold uptrend remain largely unchanged, with geopolitical uncertainty acting as a structural rather than episodic support for prices. Monetary conditions continue to form another key pillar of support, while official sector buying and ETF demand remain important anchors for the market.
Overall, OCBC’s revised outlook underscores the view that gold’s strength is being driven by longer-term shifts in global risk perception, rather than temporary market dislocations, keeping the metal well supported heading into 2026.