Kolkata, April 29: As West Bengal exit poll numbers for 2026 flood in projecting a BJP majority, a look back at 2021 tells a sobering story about the reliability of pre-result forecasts in this state. Five years ago, not a single exit poll agency correctly predicted the scale of the Trinamool Congress victory — and every single one overestimated the BJP by an average of 49 seats while underestimating the TMC by 61 seats.
The 2021 West Bengal Assembly Elections produced one of the most spectacular exit poll failures in Indian electoral history. The average of all major polls projected TMC+ at 155 seats and BJP+ at 126 — a competitive contest that suggested the saffron party was within striking distance of the 148-seat majority mark. The actual result was a landslide: TMC won 216 seats while the BJP was reduced to just 77, a difference of 61 seats below the poll average for TMC and 49 seats above the poll average for BJP.
Here is how each major agency fared in 2021 against the actual outcome of TMC 216, BJP 77, Congress 1:
ABP News-CVoter projected TMC+ at 152-164 and BJP+ at 109-121 — undershooting TMC by at least 52 seats and overshooting BJP by at least 32. IPSOS gave a point estimate of TMC 158 and BJP 115 — off by 58 and 38 seats respectively. Today’s Chanakya projected TMC+ at 169-191 and BJP+ at 97-119 — the most optimistic for TMC of all agencies, yet still undershooting by at least 25 seats at the upper end. ETG Research projected TMC+ at 164-176 and BJP+ at 105-115. P-MARQ — the same agency that has now projected BJP at 150-175 in 2026 — gave TMC 152-172 and BJP 112-132 in 2021, overshooting BJP by at least 35 seats. NewsX-Polstrat projected TMC+ at 152-162 and BJP+ at 115-125. India Today-Axis My India was the most bullish on BJP, projecting 134-160 seats for the saffron party and 130-156 for TMC — essentially predicting a BJP majority — when the actual result saw BJP win just 77. Jan Ki Baat projected BJP at 162-185, the highest BJP estimate of any agency, and TMC at just 104-121 — off by nearly 100 seats on the TMC tally at its lower end.
The pattern across all agencies was identical in direction if not in magnitude: every poll overestimated BJP and underestimated TMC. The reasons cited by analysts in the aftermath included the difficulty of capturing last-minute consolidation of minority and women voters behind the TMC, the social pressure on voters in TMC-dominated booths to not reveal their true preference to surveyors, and the ground-level strength of the TMC’s booth management machinery which exit poll methodologies consistently fail to account for.
The 2021 miss is directly relevant to reading the 2026 exit polls. P-MARQ, which underestimated TMC by at least 44 seats and overestimated BJP by at least 35 in 2021, is now projecting BJP at 150-175 in 2026. Praja is projecting BJP at 178-208. If a similar systematic bias is present in 2026 polling — favouring BJP and undercounting TMC — the actual result on May 2 could look very different from what the numbers tonight suggest.
That said, 2026 is not 2021. The political context has shifted significantly. The RG Kar Medical College rape and murder case generated genuine public anger, particularly among women voters. The TMC is now in its third consecutive term, facing the weight of 15 years of anti-incumbency. The Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls removed approximately 9 million names, a process that differentially affected Muslim and Dalit voters in ways that could structurally benefit the BJP. Voter turnout in Phase 2 today touched nearly 90% by 5 PM — the highest in the state since Independence, according to the Chief Election Commissioner — a figure that itself defies simple interpretation.
Whether 2026 is the year the exit polls finally get West Bengal right, or whether Mamata Banerjee once again confounds the forecasters, will be known on May 2.