Shares of One97 Communications (Paytm) fell sharply today, declining 6.33% to ₹1,074.75 by 9:46 AM IST after opening 8% lower at ₹1,084.95, touching an intraday low of ₹1,051.10. The previous close was ₹1,147.35, and the stock is now 22% below its 52-week high of ₹1,381.80. Volumes were enormous at over 67.57 lakh shares in under 30 minutes of trade — reflecting the scale of the reaction to the RBI’s weekend bombshell. Notably, the order book was nearly balanced at 52% buy versus 48% sell, suggesting some bottom-fishers have stepped in even as sellers dominate price action.
Here are five key things that top global and Indian analysts said about Paytm after the RBI cancelled Paytm Payments Bank’s banking licence effective April 24, 2026.
1. Bernstein: Outperform, target ₹1,500 — but calls it an “incremental negative”
Bernstein maintained its Outperform call with a target price of ₹1,500 per share but acknowledged the licence cancellation is an incremental negative given the long history of regulatory actions against the company. Crucially, Bernstein said no financial impact is expected since Paytm’s investment in the Payments Bank was already fully written off. The brokerage added a silver lining for optimistic investors: the formal closure of the Payments Bank chapter may actually clear the path for approval of an NBFC or PPI (Prepaid Payment Instrument) licence — a regulatory green light that the company has been seeking and that would open entirely new business verticals.
2. Jefferies: Buy, target ₹1,350 — says all core services continue normally
Jefferies maintained a Buy rating with a target price of ₹1,350, noting that RBI confirmed Paytm Payments Bank’s assets exceed its liabilities — meaning depositors will be made whole through the winding-up process. Jefferies pointed out that agreements between One97 Communications and the Payments Bank were already terminated and the board was reset with a CEO from IDBI Bank — moves that had effectively created a legal and operational firewall between the parent and the subsidiary. The brokerage confirmed that all core Paytm services — the app, UPI, QR, Soundbox, card machines, payment gateway and Paytm Money — continue normally and are unaffected by the licence cancellation.
3. The RBI’s stated reasons — governance, public interest and licence compliance
Both Bernstein and Jefferies highlighted that the RBI cited concerns around operations, governance, public interest and licence compliance as the grounds for cancellation — a multi-pronged regulatory indictment that goes beyond any single operational failure. The RBI had first restricted Paytm Payments Bank from onboarding new customers in March 2022 and barred fresh deposits in early 2024. Friday’s cancellation is the culmination of a four-year enforcement timeline, not a sudden action — and analysts note this context is important for assessing reputational risk going forward.
4. The NBFC/PPI licence thesis — the bull case hiding inside the bad news
The most intriguing analyst observation is Bernstein’s point that the licence cancellation could paradoxically accelerate Paytm’s path to becoming a regulated NBFC or obtaining a fresh PPI licence. With the Payments Bank now formally wound up and the regulatory relationship with PPBL severed, One97 Communications can approach the RBI as a clean entity seeking a new licence — rather than as a company managing a subsidiary under active enforcement. This is speculative but not unreasonable, and it forms the bull case for investors willing to look past the near-term noise.
5. What the market is actually pricing in today
At ₹1,074.75, Paytm is trading 22% below its 52-week high of ₹1,381.80 and well below both the Bernstein target of ₹1,500 and the Jefferies target of ₹1,350. The nearly balanced order book — 52% buy versus 48% sell — suggests the market is not in full panic mode, and the stock appears to be finding tentative support after the initial gap-down. The key debate for investors is simple: does the Payments Bank cancellation remove the last major regulatory overhang from the stock, or does it signal that regulatory risk around the parent company itself is not fully resolved? That question will take weeks, not hours, to answer.