Bernstein on Reliance Industries (RIL) share: Outperform call, expects 22.6% upside citing telecom and retail recovery

Bernstein has maintained an ‘Outperform’ rating on Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) with a target price of ₹1,520/share, reflecting a potential upside of 22.6% from the current market price (CMP) of ₹1,239.95.

Key Highlights:

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  1. Telecom (Jio):
    • Anticipates a 12% increase in ARPU (average revenue per user) without tariff hikes.
    • Subscriber base expected to grow by 4-5%, driving significant earnings growth in FY25.
  2. Retail:
    • Double-digit EBITDA growth expected to resume in 2025, contributing to strong performance across segments.
  3. Refining Margins:
    • Gross Refining Margins (GRM) are expected to rebound after declining to $9/bbl in FY24, supporting overall profitability.
  4. Valuation Appeal:
    • RIL’s valuations are currently at a 3-year low, presenting an attractive risk-reward opportunity for investors.

Outlook:

Bernstein projects a recovery cycle for RIL in 2025, driven by telecom and retail growth, alongside improving refining margins. The brokerage emphasizes that the current valuation levels make RIL an attractive investment proposition for the medium to long term.

Disclaimer: The above analysis is based on provided data and is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Readers should consult their financial advisors before making investment decisions.