India’s 2026 southwest monsoon is expected to deliver below normal rainfall at 94 percent of the long period average, according to Skymet Weather’s first official forecast for the season released on April 7, 2026. The forecast carries a specific and concerning structural feature: while June is expected to open at a healthy 101 percent of the long period average, each subsequent month deteriorates progressively, with July at 95 percent, August at 92 percent, and September at just 89 percent, driven by El Niño conditions that are expected to strengthen through the second half of the monsoon season.
For a country where agriculture, reservoir levels, groundwater recharge, rural incomes, food inflation, and hydropower generation are all directly dependent on monsoon performance, a below normal forecast arriving in the middle of the Iran war’s economic pressure on India is the last piece of news the government and Reserve Bank of India needed.
The Month by Month Deterioration
The Skymet forecast tells a story of a monsoon that starts reasonably and gets progressively weaker as the season advances.
June at 101 percent of the long period average is actually a positive opening. A June above the long period average means the monsoon arrives with reasonable strength, kharif sowing begins on schedule, and soil moisture is established across the agricultural heartland before the critical July growth period. This is the best news in the forecast.
July at 95 percent is below normal but not alarmingly so. July is the peak monsoon month when India receives the largest proportion of its annual rainfall. A 5 percent deficit in July means less than ideal but manageable conditions for standing kharif crops including paddy, pulses, oilseeds, and cotton that were sown in June.
August at 92 percent is where the concern deepens materially. August is critical for grain filling in paddy, for cotton boll development, and for reservoir storage that will feed rabi irrigation through the winter cropping season. An 8 percent deficit in August, combined with a 5 percent July deficit, begins to accumulate into a meaningful seasonal shortfall.
September at 89 percent is the most alarming individual month figure in the forecast. September is the withdrawal phase of the monsoon but remains crucial for final crop filling, late kharif harvests, and final reservoir top-up before the dry season begins. An 11 percent deficit in September, building on August and July deficits, means the monsoon exits below par at exactly the moment when its accumulated contribution to annual totals is being finalised.
The sequential deterioration from 101 to 95 to 92 to 89 percent across June through September tells the El Niño story clearly. El Niño conditions typically develop through the northern hemisphere summer and strengthen in the second half of the year. The Skymet forecast is showing exactly that pattern: a pre-El Niño June followed by progressively El Niño-affected July, August, and September.
The Regional Picture
The regional distribution of the 2026 monsoon forecast is as important as the national aggregate and contains both concerning and reassuring elements depending on where in India you are reading this.
East and northeast India will see above normal rainfall, which is good news for West Bengal, Assam, Odisha, Bihar, and the northeastern states. These regions depend heavily on monsoon rainfall for paddy cultivation, and above normal rainfall supports their agricultural output even as the national picture is below normal.
North, west, and central India will see below normal rainfall, which covers the vast agricultural belt of Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Punjab, the states that collectively produce the bulk of India’s wheat, cotton, oilseeds, and pulses. Below normal rainfall across this region is a direct threat to kharif output and, if it persists into the rabi season through lower reservoir levels, to wheat cultivation as well.
South peninsular India is forecast to see normal rainfall, providing reasonable conditions for Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana, which is positive for those states’ agriculture and reservoir systems including the reservoirs that supply Chennai, Bengaluru, and Hyderabad.
El Niño — The Driver Behind the Forecast
El Niño is the periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean that has well-documented suppressive effects on the Indian summer monsoon. The correlation between El Niño years and below normal Indian monsoon rainfall is one of the most consistent relationships in South Asian climate science, though it is not a deterministic one, as the 2023 El Niño year produced broadly adequate Indian monsoon rainfall despite strong El Niño conditions.
Skymet’s forecast that El Niño is expected to strengthen and impact the monsoon’s second half, specifically August and September, reflects the current trajectory of Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies and atmospheric circulation patterns that meteorological models are projecting for the June to September monsoon window.
The strengthening El Niño trajectory through the second half is the key variable that could worsen the forecast further if it develops faster or more intensely than current models project, or could produce a less severe outcome if El Niño strengthens more slowly or weakly than expected.
Why This Forecast Matters More in 2026 Than in a Normal Year
In a normal year, a below normal monsoon forecast at 94 percent of the long period average would be concerning but manageable. India has significant food grain buffer stocks, a reasonably functional agricultural insurance system, and the economic capacity to manage moderate agricultural shortfalls through imports and domestic procurement adjustments.
2026 is not a normal year. The Iran war has already driven food inflation higher through energy cost transmission into agricultural input costs. The PMI data released yesterday showed input price inflation at a 45-month high across India’s services sector, with outlays on cooking oil, fruits, vegetables, meat, fish, and eggs all rising. Fuel costs are at record levels. Fertiliser prices, which are linked to natural gas prices, are elevated because of the Strait of Hormuz closure’s impact on global gas markets.
A below normal monsoon adding food production shortfalls to this already elevated food inflation environment creates a compounding pressure that the RBI will find extremely difficult to manage with conventional monetary policy tools. Higher food prices from a weak monsoon would add to the supply-side inflation already being driven by the Iran war’s energy cost transmission, making rate cuts to support growth even harder to justify and rate hikes to fight inflation even more damaging to an economy that is already slowing.
The government will also be watching the monsoon forecast against the backdrop of state government borrowings of Rs 2,54,509 crore in the April to June 2026 quarter, much of which will fund agricultural support programmes. A weak monsoon year typically requires additional fiscal support for agriculture through enhanced Minimum Support Prices, expanded crop insurance payouts, rural employment scheme spending, and drought relief, all of which add to the fiscal pressure the Iran war is already creating.
What Farmers and States Should Do Now
For farmers in north, west, and central India where below normal rainfall is forecast, the Skymet forecast is a planning signal to consider drought-resistant crop varieties, to prioritise water conservation measures, and to review crop insurance coverage before the kharif sowing season begins in June.
For state governments in the forecast-affected regions, the below normal projection is the earliest possible signal to review reservoir management protocols, groundwater extraction guidelines, and contingency plans for drought relief that may be needed in the October to December period if the monsoon exits with the September deficit the forecast projects.
June at 101 percent means there is time before the deterioration sets in. How India prepares in that window will determine how damaging the second half’s El Niño-driven weakness actually turns out to be.
This article is based on Skymet Weather’s southwest monsoon 2026 forecast as reported by ET Now on April 7, 2026. Monsoon forecasts are probabilistic and subject to revision as the season approaches. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute agricultural or investment advice.