Mausam is trending on Indian social media and search today and the reason is Skymet Weather’s southwest monsoon 2026 forecast, released on April 7, which has delivered a below normal verdict for India’s most consequential annual weather event. The forecast puts overall 2026 monsoon rainfall at 94 percent of the long period average, with El Niño expected to strengthen through the second half of the season and drag August and September progressively lower.
For the 1.4 billion Indians whose food prices, water supply, electricity bills, and rural incomes are directly shaped by how the mausam performs between June and September, here is everything you need to know about what Skymet is forecasting and what it means.
The Month-by-Month Mausam Breakdown
The most important thing to understand about the 2026 monsoon forecast is not the headline 94 percent national average. It is the month-by-month deterioration that the forecast describes.
June arrives strong at 101 percent of the long period average. This is actually good news. A normal to above normal June opening means kharif sowing begins on time, soil moisture is established across the agricultural heartland, and reservoirs begin the season with decent inflows. If the mausam were to maintain June’s performance through the season, it would be a good year.
But it does not maintain it. July falls to 95 percent. August drops further to 92 percent. September hits 89 percent. The season that opens at 101 percent exits at 89 percent, a deterioration of 12 percentage points from first month to last driven by El Niño strengthening through the second half of the season.
The progressive weakening of the mausam from June through September is the El Niño signature that Skymet’s atmospheric models are detecting in current Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature patterns. El Niño typically develops through the northern hemisphere summer and reaches its peak influence on Indian rainfall in August and September, which is exactly the pattern this forecast is showing.
Which Parts of India Get Good Mausam and Which Do Not
The regional distribution of the 2026 monsoon forecast varies significantly across the country and the difference matters enormously for agriculture, water security, and food prices.
East and northeast India will receive above normal rainfall. West Bengal, Assam, Bihar, Odisha, and the northeastern states can expect a better than average mausam this year. For Kolkata and the eastern states, the forecast is genuinely positive.
North, west, and central India will receive below normal rainfall. This is the most consequential regional verdict in the forecast because it covers Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Punjab, the states that produce the bulk of India’s wheat, paddy, cotton, pulses, and oilseeds. A weak mausam across this belt means lower kharif output, stressed reservoirs, and pressure on rabi wheat irrigation later in the year.
South peninsular India gets normal rainfall. Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana can expect adequate mausam performance, which is reassuring for those states’ agriculture and their major urban reservoirs.
Why the 2026 Mausam Arrives at the Worst Possible Moment
In any other year, a below normal monsoon forecast at 94 percent of the long period average would be worrying but manageable. India has buffer stocks, agricultural insurance, and the policy tools to handle moderate monsoon deficits.
This is not any other year. India’s economy is simultaneously absorbing the Iran war’s energy price shock, with WTI crude at a 52-week high of $115.71 per barrel and input cost inflation running at a 45-month high as of March 2026’s PMI data. The rupee is at a record low of 95 per dollar, meaning every food import costs 14 percent more in rupee terms than it did before the war began. And the Federal Reserve has abandoned its rate cut plans for 2026, removing the monetary easing that would have provided some cushion to an economy under pressure.
A weak mausam adding food production shortfalls and agricultural distress to this already stressed economic environment creates the kind of compounding pressure that the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy tools are poorly equipped to address. The RBI cannot cut rates to support growth when inflation is running hot from the war and a weak monsoon simultaneously. It cannot raise rates to fight inflation when growth is already slowing. The mausam forecast has just made the RBI’s impossible position slightly more impossible.
What You Should Watch as the Mausam Develops
The Skymet forecast is the first of several monsoon outlooks that will be released before the June onset. The India Meteorological Department will release its own forecast later this month and its assessment, which has historically diverged from Skymet’s in both directions, will be the second major data point for the mausam outlook.
Crucially, the June rainfall forecast at 101 percent means the mausam’s opening month will provide the earliest real-world test of whether the full-season forecast is tracking correctly. A strong June that matches or exceeds the 101 percent forecast would provide some buffer against the projected second-half weakness. A weak June that falls below the forecast would signal that the full-season outcome could be worse than the 94 percent headline suggests.
Watch June. If the mausam opens as Skymet expects, there is time to prepare for the El Niño second half. If it opens weakly, the alarm needs to be louder than it already is.