Exit polls for the 2024 Assembly Elections have projected a strong performance by Congress in Haryana, while Jammu & Kashmir is expected to witness a hung assembly. These predictions indicate a possible turnaround for Congress, denying BJP a third consecutive term in Haryana, and giving an edge to the Congress-National Conference alliance in Jammu & Kashmir.
Haryana Exit Polls: Congress Set for a Win
The exit polls suggest that Congress will comfortably regain power in Haryana, with an estimated 54 seats out of the 90-member assembly. The BJP, which has been in power for nearly a decade, is expected to win around 27 seats, while other parties, including INLD, may secure 9 seats. The projections hint at a clear majority for Congress, a party that has been in the opposition since 2014.
Various exit polls have predicted the Congress seat count to range from 44 to as high as 64, indicating a wide margin over BJP. The polls highlight that BJP’s struggles with anti-incumbency, Jat anger, farmer distress, and unemployment might have impacted their performance.
In the 2019 assembly elections, BJP was the single largest party with 40 seats, while Congress won 31. BJP had to form an alliance with JJP to stay in power, but the upcoming polls suggest that Congress will reclaim the lead.
Jammu & Kashmir: A Likely Hung Assembly
In Jammu & Kashmir, exit polls point to a hung assembly similar to the situation in 2014. The Congress-National Conference (NC) alliance is expected to emerge as the largest bloc, with around 41 seats in the 90-member assembly. BJP is projected to secure 27 seats, while PDP and smaller parties, including independents, are likely to gain around 15 seats.
Among the different pollsters, Peoples Pulse is the only one predicting a majority for the NC-Congress alliance, estimating 46-50 seats. Axis My India’s prediction shows independents and smaller parties potentially securing up to 23 seats, while the poll by Gulistan points to a close contest between NC-Congress (31-36 seats) and BJP (28-30 seats).
These predictions may force the NC-Congress alliance to seek support from independent candidates to form the government in Jammu & Kashmir.
Impact on BJP and PDP
The exit poll results are concerning for BJP and PDP in Jammu & Kashmir. BJP was hoping for a significant seat gain after the abrogation of Article 370 and the increase in representation for the Jammu region following delimitation. Despite these factors, the exit polls predict no major change in BJP’s seat share.
For PDP, led by Mehbooba Mufti, the forecast spells a continued decline. In 2014, PDP was the largest party with 28 seats, forming a coalition government with BJP. However, this alliance fell apart in 2018, and PDP has struggled to regain its former strength since.
Conclusion
If the exit polls hold true, Congress is poised for a comeback in Haryana, significantly altering the political landscape in the state. Meanwhile, the hung assembly in Jammu & Kashmir will lead to coalition-building efforts, especially for the NC-Congress alliance. The final results of both Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir elections will be announced on October 8.
