The International Energy Agency (IEA) has issued a stark warning that Europe may have only six weeks of jet fuel reserves remaining as the conflict with Iran restricts global supply. While a total shutdown is not imminent, the IEA characterizes the situation as a “dire strait,” with the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz acting as a primary catalyst for an impending aviation crisis.
Supply pressure
Europe is uniquely vulnerable because it relies heavily on imported refined products. The ongoing maritime blockade has forced tankers onto longer, more expensive routes around the Cape of Good Hope, delaying arrivals and depleting port inventories. Aviation is the first sector to experience the “Hormuz Shock” because airports operate on tighter inventory cycles than traditional heating or automotive fuel sectors.
Aviation and economic impact
If supply lines do not normalize by late May 2026, airlines may be forced to implement route cancellations, prioritize long-haul flights, and raise fares significantly. Regional airports are at the highest risk due to limited onsite storage and weaker bargaining power. Beyond passenger travel, the shortage threatens high-value freight and tourism sectors already struggling with the inflationary pressures of the 2026 energy crisis.
Wider consequences
The European Commission has acknowledged these “real supply risks,” noting that current strategic reserves provide only a temporary buffer. The ripple effects extend to business travel and global trade logistics, further dampening European growth projections. The crisis illustrates how the regional conflict in West Asia has transitioned into a direct threat to European transport stability and economic security.