Air raid sirens have sounded across the Negev region in southern Israel, the latest in a relentless series of Iranian missile launches that have continued even as Donald Trump announced a five day pause on US strikes against Iranian power plants and claimed the two countries have major points of agreement toward a resolution.
The sirens in the Negev are the most recent development in a conflict that has produced more dramatic reversals, contradictions, and geopolitical pivots in a single 24 hour period than most wars produce in months. Here is the full picture of everything that has happened since Monday evening.
Trump Claims a Deal Is Taking Shape — Iran Calls It Fake News
US President Donald Trump announced on Monday evening that he had ordered the military to suspend strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days, claiming that the United States and Iran have major points of agreement and that Iran wants to make a deal. The announcement sent Brent crude falling 10.9 percent to $99.94, its sharpest single session decline since the war began, and pushed the S&P 500 up 1.1 percent for its best day since the conflict started.
Iran’s response was immediate and comprehensive. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf described Trump’s statements as fake news and manipulation of the energy market. The Iranian Foreign Ministry formally denied any talks. State media denied any direct or indirect contact. An Iranian security source said the Strait of Hormuz will not return to pre-war conditions as long as psychological warfare continues. Tasnim News Agency cited a source confirming there have been no talks and there are no talks. The Iranian Embassy in Kabul claimed Trump withdrew after Iran gave a strong warning.
However, an Israeli official told Axios that contacts are underway for a meeting between senior Iranian and American officials in Islamabad, Pakistan, later this week, and that Israel was aware of mediation efforts by several countries and was surprised by how far those contacts had progressed, including apparent agreement on 15 points. That detail has not been confirmed by either Washington or Tehran.
Iran’s Cautious Position Explained
Reporting from Tehran, Al Jazeera’s Mohamed Vall offered a nuanced read of Iran’s position that helps explain the apparent contradiction between the comprehensive denials and the Islamabad meeting reports. The understanding in Tehran, he reported, is that there might have been some mediation between the two sides, but that did not amount to any kind of talks around a negotiating table. For Iran, the experience of previous diplomatic engagements with the United States, particularly under Trump, has created deep suspicion and caution about any American move.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has been active on the phones, speaking with counterparts in South Korea, Pakistan, Oman, and other regional partners, reiterating in each call that there is no new agreement on the Strait of Hormuz and that it remains under Iranian control. The volume of those diplomatic calls suggests Iran is engaged in serious regional diplomacy even as it denies direct engagement with Washington.
Israel’s Private Concerns About the Diplomacy
While Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly displayed unity with the United States and vowed to keep attacking Iran and Lebanon to safeguard Israeli interests in any potential ceasefire or peace deal, there are significant private tensions emerging from within the Israeli government about where the US-Iran diplomacy might lead.
Reporting from Amman, Al Jazeera’s Rob McBride noted that Israel has real concerns about what the United States might concede in negotiations. Netanyahu is widely suspected of having tried to undermine and derail the last set of talks brokered by Oman before encouraging Trump to get involved militarily. The prospect of whirlwind diplomacy from the White House that concludes in an agreement Israel was not central to designing is a scenario Israeli officials are apparently watching with significant anxiety.
Russian Workers Evacuating Iran’s Nuclear Plant
A development that has not received enough attention in the broader noise of the day: Russia’s state nuclear corporation Rosatom has announced it will evacuate more workers from Iran’s Russia-built nuclear power plant at Bushehr, leaving just a few dozen of its approximately 480 workers at the facility. Rosatom chief Alexei Likhachev confirmed the evacuation plan while the Kremlin warned the United States to avoid hitting the plant, with spokesman Dmitry Peskov stating it could trigger irreparable consequences.
A strike that had hit close to the working nuclear reactor last week without causing damage or injuries has clearly accelerated Russia’s decision to reduce its personnel exposure at the site. The presence of a functioning nuclear reactor in an active conflict zone, with Russian personnel now being evacuated in stages, represents one of the most dangerous physical risk factors in the entire conflict.
Missiles Continue to Fall Despite the Pause
Despite Trump’s five day suspension of US strikes on Iranian power plants, Iranian missile launches at Israel have continued without interruption. A loud explosion rang out over Jerusalem after the Israeli army detected missile launches from Iran and worked to intercept the threat. Israeli President Isaac Herzog was forced to take cover at a news conference in the northern Israeli town of Kiryat Shmona as a missile struck nearby. He had just said that Israel could not return to last year’s ceasefire and must secure strategic depth inside Lebanon. A building in northern Israel was hit after an Iranian missile launch, with search and rescue forces deployed and a man in his 30s suffering a shrapnel injury.
The continuation of Iranian missile strikes during the five day pause period reinforces Iran’s position that Trump’s announcement represented a unilateral American decision rather than a mutually agreed ceasefire. Iran did not commit to pausing anything. It has not paused anything.
US Strikes Continue Too
The United States meanwhile conducted an air attack on a PMF base in Iraq’s Anbar province, killing at least seven people including senior leaders who were holding a meeting at the time. Several others were wounded. The strike demonstrates that American military operations in the broader conflict theatre have not stopped, even as direct strikes on Iranian power plants have been paused. The conflict’s geographic scope, now encompassing Iran, Israel, Lebanon, and Iraq, continues to expand.
Lebanon’s Worsening Situation
Israel has kept up its barrage of strikes on Lebanon, targeting Beirut and its suburbs as well as the Nabatieh and Tyre areas, where an attack killed a medic. Israeli attacks have damaged or destroyed six of the seven main bridges over the Litani River, which splits northern Lebanon from the south, in recent days. The UN estimates 1.2 million people in Lebanon are now displaced. Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich told an Israeli radio programme that the new Israeli border must be the Litani River, a statement that signals territorial ambitions in Lebanon that extend well beyond the current military campaign against Hezbollah.
What the Sirens in the Negev Mean Right Now
The Negev region in southern Israel includes the city of Beersheba, the town of Dimona where Iran’s missiles struck a building near Israel’s nuclear research centre last week, and a range of military installations and civilian communities. Sirens in the Negev suggest Iranian missiles are being directed at southern Israel in addition to the central and northern strikes that have characterised recent barrages. The Israeli military’s air defence systems, the Arrow, David’s Sling, and Iron Dome, are actively engaging incoming threats.
The five day pause on US strikes on Iranian power plants has not produced a pause in the war. It has produced a diplomatic window, however contested, within which a meeting in Islamabad may or may not materialise, 15 points of apparent agreement may or may not be the foundation of a framework, and Iranian missiles continue to fall on Israeli cities while Israeli jets continue to strike Lebanese and Iranian targets.
The Brent crude price below $100 per barrel reflects the market’s hope that the window leads somewhere. The sirens in the Negev reflect the reality that it has not led there yet.
This is a developing story. Business Upturn will continue to update coverage.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.