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As the 2024 election approaches, the betting odds reveal a tight contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. With just 63 days remaining, both candidates are nearly neck-and-neck in the odds, reflecting a fiercely competitive race.
According to Covers, both Harris and Trump are currently listed at -110, indicating an even chance of winning. This is the closest split at this stage for any recent Democratic nominee, contrasting sharply with Hillary Clinton’s -323 odds at the 75-day mark before her loss in 2016. In contrast, the U.K.-based Betfair Exchange shows Harris slightly favored with +112 odds compared to Trump’s -102. The early momentum for Harris seen during the initial phase of her candidacy has cooled, but recent polls show her with a slight edge.
Recent polling data suggests a narrowing but still significant lead for Harris. A USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll reveals Harris leading Trump nationally 48%-43%, a notable shift from June when Biden was the nominee. This shift includes a dramatic change in support from younger voters, Hispanics, and Black voters, who have shown increased backing for Harris.
Similarly, Reuters/Ipsos and Wall Street Journal polls indicate Harris’s lead over Trump, with variations depending on demographics and battleground states. The Fox News poll highlights close races in key Sun Belt states, with Harris slightly ahead in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, while Trump holds a narrow lead in North Carolina.
Historical data shows that the betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, with the most notable upsets being Harry Truman’s 1948 victory and Clinton’s 2016 loss despite her favorable odds. This historical perspective underscores the unpredictability of this election cycle and the tightly contested nature of the race between Harris and Trump.