Lando Norris stands on the brink of history as he arrives at the Qatar Grand Prix with a golden chance to secure the 2025 Formula 1 World Championship. Despite losing ground in the final Sprint race of the season — where he finished third behind Oscar Piastri and George Russell — the McLaren star still leads the standings with 396 points, ahead of Oscar Piastri (374) and Max Verstappen (371).
At the Lusail International Circuit, Piastri took a dominant Sprint win, while Verstappen climbed from P6 to P4. The result tightened the fight, but the title remains firmly in Norris’ hands heading into tonight’s race.
Here are the scenarios:
If Norris wins the Qatar GP:
He becomes world champion instantly — regardless of where Piastri or Verstappen finish.
If Norris does not win:
He must outscore Piastri by four points and not finish behind Verstappen. Achieving this secures him the title before Abu Dhabi.
If Piastri and Verstappen fail to score:
Norris only needs to finish eighth or higher to clinch the championship.
If Norris outscores Piastri by only three points:
The fight continues to Abu Dhabi, as Piastri can still overturn the deficit due to the race-win tiebreaker.
The critical number:
Norris needs a 26-point lead over Piastri after Qatar to guarantee the championship, even if he doesn’t win the race tonight.
But there’s jeopardy too — if Norris fails to score and Piastri wins, the Australian will actually lead the standings heading into the season finale.
With the grid set, tyres chosen, and pressure at its peak, Norris has one clear opportunity to end McLaren’s long wait for a world champion — last achieved by Lewis Hamilton.
The stage is set in Lusail. Tonight, Norris can make history.
