IPL 2021: The way to the top 4 is still wide open for many teams

The group stage of IPL 2021 is about to reach its dusk. With 42 matches out of 56 already played, the points table has shaped in a certain manner. Usually, at this stage the race for the top four quickens up, while dead rubbers start getting recognized, languishing at the bottom of the table. This year is different though, as insofar, no team has turned into a dead rubber yet. Yes, SRH has only 4 points but statistically, they still have a 2% chance of making it to the top four.

Following are few more such statistics by a TOI analyst. These statistics show why IPL is one of the most competitive and popular leagues around the globe.

Starting from the top, only CSK and DC have 97 and 92 % chances respectively, to remain among the top three. RCB, currently in the third spot, has 96 chances of remaining in the top four, but only a 1/3^rd of a chance to make it to the top two.

Talking about the mid-table, KKR’s last win cemented their current position at number 4. It has a 55% chance of finishing in the top half of the table and less than a 2% chance of finishing at the top 2 positions. Mumbai Indians, currently at 5^th position have similar odds as that of KKR.

After the loss against MI, Punjab Kings’ chances have dropped considerably to make it to the top 4. However, there’s still a slender margin of 18% chance for them to make it to the top half of the table, with no possibility of making it to the top 2. On the other hand, Rajasthan Royals have more chances of making it into the top 4, than Punjab, as they have a game in hand. Their chances stand at 38% of making it to the top 4, with a slender margin of 1.3% of making it to the top 2.

Last on the list is SRH, which has just a meager 2% chance of making it to the top 4. What’s really interesting is that there are more chances of 3 teams: CSK, DC, and RCB tying for the first spot, and KKR, MI, and RR tying for the fourth slot than there are chances of SRH making it to the top half of the table.

The above stats are based on points won by the teams, and not on the Net Run Rate (NRR), which can change any moment in the last stage of the league.

This is what the Points Table looks like after Match 42 of #VIVOIPL. 🔽 #MIvPBKS pic.twitter.com/JGWUyjqXbW

— IndianPremierLeague (@IPL) September 28, 2021