Silver prices fell sharply on Monday, extending losses from the previous session after US President Donald Trump issued his most aggressive ultimatum yet to Iran, warning of strikes on power plants and other civilian infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by Tuesday at 8 PM Eastern Time. On MCX, silver futures stood at Rs 2,31,383 per kilogram, down Rs 1,112 or 0.48 percent. Gold futures fell Rs 413 or 0.28 percent to Rs 1,49,267. Copper bucked the trend, gaining Rs 5.25 or 0.45 percent to Rs 1,160.35, while zinc edged up 0.08 percent to Rs 323.45. Crude oil on MCX slipped Rs 18 or 0.17 percent to Rs 10,390 per barrel.
Globally, silver fell below $72 per ounce on Monday in international markets, continuing a decline that has now erased more than 20 percent of its value since the Iran-Israel-US conflict began. The scale of that loss in a metal traditionally considered a safe haven during geopolitical crises tells a specific and important story about the nature of this particular conflict’s market impact.
Trump’s Latest Iran Ultimatum
The immediate trigger for Monday’s silver decline is Trump’s fresh ultimatum delivered over the weekend. Trump warned that the United States would bring hell to Iran and set a new deadline of Tuesday at 8 PM Eastern Time for the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened. The president also indicated plans to hold a news conference at 1 PM on Monday, which markets are treating as a potential escalation announcement.
Tehran has rejected the latest ultimatum and continues to carry out attacks on energy assets across the Middle East. The pattern of American ultimatum followed by Iranian rejection followed by continued strikes has now repeated itself multiple times since the conflict began, with each cycle reinforcing the market’s assessment that the Strait of Hormuz closure will not be resolved quickly or cleanly regardless of the deadline language used.
For silver specifically, Trump’s ultimatum adds to the two factors that have driven its 20 percent decline since the conflict began.
Why Silver Has Fallen 20 Percent During a War
The 20 percent decline in silver since the conflict began is counterintuitive to anyone who learned that silver and gold are safe-haven assets that rise during geopolitical crises. The Iran war has broken that relationship for silver specifically, and understanding why matters for investors holding or considering silver exposure.
The first driver is inflation expectations from surging energy prices. With Brent crude above $110 per barrel and expected to test $114 to $116 per barrel based on current technical targets, energy costs are feeding through to broader inflation across the global economy. Higher inflation expectations have strengthened expectations of interest rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve and other central banks. Rising interest rates are negative for silver and gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. When rates are expected to rise, investors sell silver to move into interest-bearing instruments.
The second driver is forced liquidation. As equity markets have fallen and other positions have moved against investors during the Iran war, portfolio managers have been forced to sell liquid assets to raise cash and cover losses or meet margin calls in other parts of their portfolios. Silver, as a liquid commodity market, has been a source of funds in this forced selling environment. When investors need cash quickly, they sell what they can sell, and silver markets are deep enough to absorb large sell orders relatively efficiently.
This combination of rate hike expectations and forced liquidation has overwhelmed silver’s traditional safe-haven appeal, producing the unusual outcome of a metal declining 20 percent during an active geopolitical conflict.
The Gold Divergence
Gold at Rs 1,49,267 on MCX and approximately $4,545 per ounce in spot markets internationally has performed far better than silver during the same conflict period, maintaining its safe-haven status even as silver has broken down. The gold-silver ratio, which measures how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold, has therefore widened dramatically since the conflict began.
Historically a wide gold-silver ratio eventually normalises either through gold falling, silver rising, or both. The question for silver investors is whether the forced liquidation selling and rate hike pressure that has driven the 20 percent decline represents a temporary dislocation that will eventually reverse, or whether the structural shift in interest rate expectations from the Iran war’s inflation impact represents a more sustained headwind for silver.
The technical picture from Reuters market analysis puts spot gold resistance at $4,666 to $4,791 per ounce with support at $4,417, suggesting gold remains in an uptrend despite Monday’s modest decline. Silver’s technical support levels and the speed of its 20 percent decline suggest the metal is searching for a floor rather than building a base.
The Broader Commodity Picture
The mixed picture in Monday’s MCX data reflects the different forces acting on different commodity categories simultaneously.
Copper’s 0.45 percent gain to Rs 1,160.35 reflects industrial demand expectations rather than safe-haven dynamics. Copper is used as a leading indicator of global industrial activity, and its modest gain on Monday suggests markets are not yet pricing in a severe global recession despite the stagflation concerns that have been building since Trump’s escalation speech last week. LME copper technical analysis shows no clear directional target in the current data, reflecting genuine uncertainty about the industrial outlook.
Zinc’s marginal 0.08 percent gain to Rs 323.45 is effectively flat, consistent with a market in wait-and-see mode ahead of Trump’s Monday afternoon news conference.
Crude oil’s 0.17 percent decline on MCX to Rs 10,390 is modest given the escalation rhetoric, but international Brent technical targets of $114.35 to $116.42 per barrel with support at $106.42 to $108.87 and WTI targets of $117 to $120 per barrel suggest oil analysts expect further upward pressure rather than relief. The slight MCX decline may reflect profit-taking or the specific timing of the screenshot relative to the day’s trading range rather than a sustained directional move.
What the Tuesday Deadline Means for Markets
Trump’s Tuesday 8 PM Eastern Time deadline, translating to Wednesday 6:30 AM IST, is the next critical market event after whatever is announced at Monday’s 1 PM news conference. Iran has already rejected it. The question markets are pricing is not whether Iran will comply, but what the US military and diplomatic response to non-compliance will be.
If Trump follows through with strikes on Iranian power plants and civilian infrastructure as warned, the conflict escalates to a new level that has not been reached yet and that would be expected to drive a fresh leg higher in crude oil, a renewed dollar safe-haven bid, and potentially a reversal of silver’s recent weakness as the safe-haven demand overwhelms the rate hike and liquidation pressures.
If the deadline passes without the threatened action, markets will interpret it as another ultimatum without follow-through, which would likely weaken the dollar, reduce some of the rate hike premium in bond markets, and potentially provide some relief to silver.
Silver’s position at Monday’s levels, down 20 percent from conflict-start prices and sitting below $72 per ounce internationally, means it is approaching levels where long-term structural buyers, particularly from industrial demand in solar panels, electronics, and other applications, typically emerge. Whether those buyers can absorb the continued selling pressure from rate expectations and portfolio liquidation before Tuesday’s deadline resolution is the immediate question for silver markets this week.
MCX price data is sourced from the screenshot provided as of Monday April 6, 2026. International silver and commodity price data is sourced from publicly available market information. Technical analysis levels cited are from Reuters market analysis. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Commodity prices are highly volatile and past performance is not indicative of future results.