Commodity markets are navigating a complex and data-rich week, with silver emerging as the standout asset across both global and domestic markets — driven simultaneously by AI-demand optimism internationally and India’s historic import duty hike domestically. Here is the complete data-driven picture for May 14, 2026.
MCX commodity prices on May 14
Silver: ₹2,95,501 per kg, down ₹4,737 or 1.58% on the day — a natural consolidation after yesterday’s extraordinary surge. Gold: ₹1,61,700 per 10 grams, down ₹486 or 0.30%. Copper: ₹1,384.50 per kg, down ₹14.40 or 1.03%. Zinc: ₹363.20, down ₹1.55 or 0.42%. Crude oil: ₹9,704, down ₹7 or 0.07%. Natural gas: ₹274.50, down ₹0.70 or 0.25%.
The broad MCX pullback on May 14 follows an extraordinary May 13 session that deserves its own accounting.
What happened on May 13: India’s duty hike and the historic MCX surge
Gold rates and silver rates in India made one of the strongest single-day surges on May 13, 2026, after the government hiked the import duty on precious metals from 6% to 15% amidst the West Asia crisis. MCX gold skyrocketed by ₹11,055 to hit an intraday high above ₹1,64,497 per 10 grams, while MCX silver zoomed by nearly ₹22,400 to touch ₹3,01,429 per kilogram — crossing ₹3 lakh for the first time in four months intraday.
The import duty hike — combining a 10% basic customs duty with a 5% Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess — was the single biggest domestic driver of the sharp price jump. Both MCX gold and silver surged approximately 6% each on the day, with Indian precious metals significantly outperforming international bullion markets where spot gold was lower by 0.4% and spot silver was below $87.
The revised duty structure adds approximately ₹27,000 per 10 grams to the cost increase compared to approximately ₹13,500 under the earlier regime — a substantial pass-through that at minimum defers a portion of physical demand. Gold ETFs surged 15% on the duty hike announcement as investors rotated toward digital gold that avoids the import duty channel entirely. World Gold Council data shows India’s gold ETF inflows jumped 186% year-on-year in the March quarter to a record 20 metric tonnes — a trend this policy move is likely to accelerate.
The jewellery industry warned of disruption. GJC chairman Rajesh Rokde warned that the combination of PM Modi’s austerity messaging and the steep duty increase will pressure the organised trade and fuel unofficial channels. Senco Gold CEO Suvankar Sen offered a more calibrated view: jewellery demand by volume may decline 10-15%, but overall purchase values could remain elevated because prices are higher — consumers likely to shift toward lighter-weight products rather than exit the category entirely.
Global silver: 8 gains in 10 sessions, $100 target emerging
Internationally, silver closed at $88.89 per troy ounce on May 13 — its highest settlement value in over two months — marking gains in 8 of the past 10 sessions. Front-month gold closed at $4,697.70 per ounce, up 0.4%.
Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital Securities cited the rally in AI stocks and silver’s growing industrial use within the sector as a key reason investors are likely to continue supporting the move higher, and said silver could soon test $100 per ounce or more. The AI-silver connection is structural — silver is a non-substitutable input in the advanced semiconductors, data centre cooling systems, and electronic components that the global AI buildout requires in growing quantities.
The gold-silver ratio has tightened sharply to around 54:1 — well below the long-term average of approximately 68 — meaning silver is significantly outperforming gold. On COMEX, silver’s gains have consistently outpaced gold’s over the recent rally period.
Crude oil and base metals
Brent crude hovered near $106 per barrel after falling 2% in the previous session, with WTI trading around $101 per barrel as markets tracked developments around the ongoing Iran war and the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing. No signs of a near-term Middle East resolution continue to keep energy markets on edge.
Copper declined amid weak demand signals, with aluminium and zinc also trading lower — reflecting softer industrial sentiment and concerns around global manufacturing activity as the US-China trade dynamic creates uncertainty in industrial commodity demand forecasts.
The US inflation backdrop
Recent US CPI data showed headline inflation at 3.8% year-on-year — the highest since 2023. Gasoline prices have surged approximately 50% since the Middle East war began. The stronger-than-expected inflation data reinforced Federal Reserve rate-hold expectations, which applied some pressure on gold internationally even as domestic prices surged due to the India duty hike. PPI data separately showed US wholesale inflation accelerated in April to its fastest pace since 2022 — adding to the stagflationary pressure narrative building in global markets.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipped 0.1%, providing marginal support for dollar-denominated commodities including gold and silver at the margin.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors are advised to consult a registered financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Business Upturn does not hold any position in the securities mentioned.