MCX Silver futures were trading at Rs 2,33,498 per kilogram as of 09:29 IST on April 7, 2026, up a marginal Rs 119 or 0.05 percent on the day, as the metal attempts to stabilise after two consecutive sessions of decline. Internationally, silver steadied near $73 per ounce on Tuesday, pausing its recent slide but remaining more than 20 percent below where it was trading when the Iran war began on February 28.
The stabilisation in silver on Tuesday is fragile and conditional. It is happening against a backdrop of Trump’s threat to strike Iranian power plants and bridges unless his conditions are met by 8 PM Eastern Time tonight, continuing ceasefire signals through mediators that are creating uncertainty about the conflict’s immediate direction, and a Federal Reserve rate cut expectation that has been completely eliminated by the war’s inflation impact.
The Fed Rate Cut Is Now Off the Table
The single most important development for silver’s medium-term outlook is not a military event. It is the complete repricing of Federal Reserve policy expectations that the Iran war has produced. Markets now expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged through the rest of 2026. This compares with projections of two rate cuts that were priced into markets before the conflict began.
That shift in rate expectations is devastating for silver specifically among precious metals. Silver yields no interest income. When the opportunity cost of holding silver, measured by the interest rate available on dollar-denominated alternatives, rises or stays elevated, the relative attractiveness of holding silver falls. Two expected rate cuts represent two reductions in that opportunity cost. Their elimination means silver holders are now expected to forgo competitive returns for longer than previously anticipated.
Gold has managed to maintain much of its safe-haven premium despite the same rate environment because gold’s debasement trade narrative, US government debt at $39 trillion, fiscal deficits widening because of the war, and central bank accumulation as a reserve diversification strategy, provides a demand floor that silver does not have to the same degree. Silver’s industrial demand, while real and growing in solar panels, electronics, and other applications, has not been sufficient to offset the rate-driven selling pressure.
Trump’s Tuesday 8 PM Deadline — The Variable That Could Move Silver Either Way
Trump’s deadline of 8 PM Eastern Time tonight, translating to 5:30 AM IST on Wednesday April 8, is the most immediate price-moving event for silver just as it is for crude oil, gold, the rupee, and every other asset with Iran war sensitivity.
A credible ceasefire signal before or at the deadline would produce a rapid reversal in the rate cut expectation story. If the war ends or pauses credibly, energy prices fall, inflation expectations drop, the Fed rate cut probability revives, and silver rebounds sharply from its 20 percent discount to pre-war levels. The silver recovery in a genuine ceasefire scenario could be faster and larger than gold’s recovery because silver has fallen further and its industrial demand case remains structurally intact.
A breakdown of the deadline without ceasefire, accompanied by US strikes on Iranian power plants and bridges as Trump threatened, would drive another leg of energy price increases, further cement the no rate cuts in 2026 narrative, and extend silver’s underperformance relative to its pre-war levels.
The ceasefire signs through mediators that are reportedly complicating the escalation scenario, including the Pakistan-brokered passage deal for Qatar LNG carriers revealed last night, are the reason silver has not fallen further today and is attempting to stabilise at Rs 2,33,498 rather than extending yesterday’s decline.
Why Silver Has Underperformed Gold and Crude in This War
The Iran war has produced one of the most unusual precious metals market dynamics in recent memory. Gold is up significantly from pre-war levels as a safe-haven and debasement trade asset. Crude oil has more than doubled from its 52-week low to its 52-week high. Silver, which is both a precious metal with safe-haven properties and an industrial metal with demand sensitivity, has fallen more than 20 percent, putting it in the same losing column as equities rather than the same winning column as gold and crude.
The explanation lies in the specific combination of factors the war has produced. Energy price inflation has raised rate hike expectations, which hurts silver as a non-yielding asset. The equity market volatility has forced portfolio liquidations where silver positions are sold to cover losses elsewhere. The industrial demand outlook has softened as global growth forecasts are revised down because of the war’s economic impact. And silver’s safe-haven appeal has been overshadowed by gold’s stronger and more established safe-haven narrative.
At Rs 2,33,498 on MCX and approximately $73 per ounce internationally, silver is attempting to build a base. Whether that base holds or breaks depends entirely on whether Trump’s 8 PM ET deadline tonight produces the ceasefire signal that would revive rate cut expectations or the escalation that would extend the conditions that have driven silver’s 20 percent decline.
MCX Silver price data is sourced from the screenshot provided as of 09:29 IST on April 7, 2026. International silver price data is based on publicly available market information. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Commodity prices are highly volatile.