Gold has had one of its most turbulent years in recent memory. The metal surged to an all-time record of $5,417.21 per ounce on January 28, 2026, as investors piled into what analysts called the debasement trade, buying gold as a hedge against ballooning Western government debt and White House policy uncertainty. Then the Iran war began on February 28, crude oil surged above $100, inflation fears returned, central banks globally pivoted toward tightening rather than easing, and gold recorded its worst monthly performance since 2008, falling 12 percent in March alone. Spot gold currently trades near $4,702 per ounce, having given back most of its year’s extraordinary gains.
But global financial institutions are not calling this the end of the gold bull market. They are calling it a pause, and they have specific price targets and specific conditions under which they expect the rally to resume.
What William Blair Is Saying
William Blair, the US investment banking and wealth management company, expects gold to quickly rebound above $5,000 per ounce as long as crude oil slips back to between $80 and $85 per barrel. The condition is clear: the gold recovery is contingent on energy price relief, which is itself contingent on Strait of Hormuz reopening or some resolution of the Iran conflict that removes the supply shock currently keeping Brent crude above $110.
Alexandra Symeonidi, analyst at William Blair, said gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset remains, which might lead to price recovery in the following quarters. She described gold as a good hedge and an asset that behaves like an insurance policy at times of market stress.
Symeonidi also flagged the medium-term structural case: “Gold’s appeal remains in place in the medium term. We anticipate that the price environment as well as diversification needs might encourage central bank buying in the second half of the year.”
What Lombard Odier Is Saying
Lombard Odier, the Swiss private banking and asset management conglomerate, has the most specific and bullish near-term target among the institutions surveyed. The firm expects bullion to reach $5,400 per ounce within 12 months, driven primarily by the prospects of Federal Reserve monetary easing following the anticipated leadership change at the US central bank.
Kevin Warsh is set to take over as Fed chair in May, replacing Jerome Powell. Warsh, a former Fed governor, has recently argued that the neutral interest rate should be lower because artificial intelligence has added deflationary pressure to the economy, a position that represents a meaningful shift from his previously hawkish reputation. If Warsh follows through on this thinking as Fed chair, the resulting monetary easing would be highly supportive for gold, which yields no interest rate income and typically moves in the opposite direction to benchmark borrowing costs.
The State Street View
Aakash Doshi, head of gold strategy at State Street Investment Management, articulated the combined catalyst that could drive gold’s recovery most clearly. “If geopolitical tensions ease, market expectations could quickly revert to rate cuts in 2026, creating a very supportive backdrop for gold. Additionally, the transition to a new Fed chair, who has been viewed by some to be inclined towards easing, also introduces a policy shift bias that could support gold.”
State Street also highlighted a structural data point that underpins the long-term gold case regardless of short-term war dynamics. Net payments on interest rates on US federal debt exceeded $1 trillion for the first time on record. US government debt totalled $39 trillion at the end of March. These are the numbers that drove the debasement trade in 2024 and 2025, and they have not improved during the Iran war. They have worsened, as military expenditure and economic disruption add to fiscal deficits.
Why Gold Fell Despite Being a Safe Haven
The apparent paradox of gold falling during an active war requires explanation. Gold surged 65 percent in 2025, its best performance across all major asset classes, as global central banks and hedge funds accumulated the metal. By January 2026, those positions were extremely large and extremely profitable.
When the Iran war began and equity markets fell sharply, hedge funds facing margin calls on their losing equity positions needed to raise cash quickly. The most liquid profitable position they held was gold. They sold it not because they had lost faith in gold’s long-term case but because it was the most available source of funds. This forced liquidation, combined with central bank selling, including reports that the Turkish central bank has pared its gold reserves by 54 tonnes since the war began to defend the lira, drove gold’s 12 percent March decline.
The turmoil in gold pricing is therefore more about unwinding positions than a reversal of fundamentals, as analysts note. The structural case for gold, ballooning Western debt, fiscal deficits widened by the war, geopolitical uncertainty, and a potential shift to monetary easing, remains intact or has strengthened during the selloff.
The Hormuz Signal Worth Watching
One development that could accelerate gold’s recovery timeline appeared in Iranian media this week. Iran reportedly signalled conditional access to the Strait of Hormuz and is drafting a protocol with Oman to manage traffic through the strait and charge passing vessels. If this protocol materialises and crude oil begins moving back toward the $80 to $85 range that William Blair cites as the trigger for a gold recovery above $5,000, the sequence of events that global financial institutions are forecasting could unfold faster than markets currently expect.
Trump said last week that the war may end in two to three weeks before shifting tone in his nationwide address by saying attacks on Iran would intensify. The contradiction between those two signals is what is keeping gold in its current holding pattern near $4,702, waiting for clarity on which version of the Iran war’s trajectory proves correct.
For Indian gold investors, the current price level represents gold that has already corrected significantly from its January record and sits at levels that multiple global institutions with specific price targets above $5,000 describe as a potential accumulation opportunity subject to the conditions described in this article.
This article is based on reporting by the South China Morning Post citing William Blair, Lombard Odier, and State Street Investment Management. Spot gold price cited is approximately $4,702 per ounce at time of source publication. All price targets and forecasts are from third-party institutions and are not endorsed by Business Upturn. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Gold is a volatile asset and past performance is not indicative of future results.