India’s merchandise exports to the United States may decline by USD 5.76 billion in 2025 as a result of increased tariffs announced by the US government, according to a data analysis by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI). The think tank projects a 6.41% drop in outbound shipments, particularly from sectors such as marine products, gold, electrical and electronics.
The US has imposed a 10% baseline tariff from April 5 to 8 and will raise the duty to 26% on Indian goods—excluding pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and certain energy products—starting April 9. In 2024, India’s exports to the US stood at USD 89.81 billion.
Exports of fish and crustaceans may decline by 20.2%, electrical and electronics by 12%, gold and diamonds by 15.3%, and auto components by 12.1%. India’s electronics and smartphone exports to the US reached USD 14.4 billion in 2024, but may fall by USD 1.78 billion due to the steep hike in duties.
Gold jewellery and cut and polished diamond exports, currently facing 2.1% duties, are projected to fall by USD 1.82 billion. Vehicle and auto part exports, which stood at USD 2.8 billion last year, could drop by USD 339.4 million.
Some sectors may see limited gains, such as pharmaceuticals, ceramic products, and apparel. Meanwhile, petroleum, solar panels and copper are exempt from the new tariffs and will continue under MFN rates.
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