The U.S. housing market is witnessing its lowest turnover rate in almost three decades, as homeowners delay moving amid high mortgage rates, economic uncertainty and shrinking job mobility.
According to data from Redfin, only 28 out of every 1,000 homes changed hands between January and September 2024 — the weakest turnover rate since at least the 1990s. That’s nearly 30% lower than the average seen between 2012 and 2022.
The turnover rate measures how often homes are sold relative to total sellable properties — showing not just fewer sales, but that Americans are simply staying put longer.
“It’s not healthy for the economy that people are staying put,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather.
“If people are stuck, it’s reflective of how the economy is stuck.”
Job market slowdown adds to housing freeze
The cooling labor market is playing a significant role. U.S. employers added just 22,000 jobs in August, sharply lower than expectations and down from 79,000 in July.
Private-sector payrolls even shrank by 32,000 in September, according to ADP data.
Major employers including Microsoft, General Motors, Amazon and Target have also announced layoffs in recent months — feeding anxiety and weakening relocation trends.
Locked-in low rates keeping owners from selling
Millions of households refinanced or bought homes at historically low interest rates in 2020-21, and now see little financial logic in selling:
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Selling means giving up ultra-low mortgage rates
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Buying again means facing much higher borrowing costs
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Home prices remain elevated, limiting affordability
Even though mortgage rates have recently eased to their lowest level in over a year, affordability remains a hurdle. The median U.S. home price has surged 53% in six years, keeping many buyers sidelined.
Market outlook
Home sales sank to a 30-year low in 2023 and have struggled to recover through 2024. While lower mortgage rates may bring some relief, economists warn that America’s “stay-put economy” — marked by low hiring, low turnover and limited mobility — could be slow to reverse.
