The Reserve Bank of India’s final guidelines on gold loan norms, released after its latest monetary policy review, are less stringent than the draft proposals and should provide a relief rally for gold loan companies and select non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), according to brokerages Morgan Stanley and Jefferies.
Morgan Stanley noted that as cited by the RBI governor during the post-policy press conference, the final norms are diluted, especially for small-ticket gold loans.
Key beneficiaries are expected to be Muthoot Finance and Manappuram Finance — both rated Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley — while Shriram Finance and Bajaj Finance (both Overweight) are also likely to gain.
Morgan Stanley believes that despite the sharp rally in Muthoot Finance stock over the past week, there is scope for further upside supported by a strong earnings outlook for Q1FY26 and FY26 as a whole.
In contrast, while Manappuram Finance also benefits, the stock is likely to remain capped near Bain Capital’s open offer price of ₹236, until that transaction is completed, Morgan Stanley said.
