Nomura’s latest cement dealer checks for January 2025 indicate a marginal recovery in trade prices across most regions, with varied performance at the regional level. The brokerage remains positive on key players like Ultratech, Shree Cement, Ambuja, and Ramco, while maintaining a neutral view on Nuvoco and ACC, and a ‘Reduce’ stance on Dalmia.
Key Price Trends:
- Eastern Region: Trade prices increased by ₹5/bag month-on-month (m-o-m) in January but remained down ₹5/bag quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) for Q3FY25.
- Northern Region: Prices rose ₹3/bag m-o-m in January and ₹8/bag q-o-q in Q3FY25.
- Western Region: Prices were up ₹3/bag m-o-m in January and ₹6/bag q-o-q in Q3FY25.
- Southern Region: Prices remained flat m-o-m in January but declined ₹7/bag q-o-q in Q3FY25.
- Central Region: Prices dropped ₹3/bag m-o-m in January and ₹1/bag q-o-q in Q3FY25.
Preferred Picks:
- Buy: Ultratech Cement, Shree Cement, Ambuja Cement, and Ramco Cements, citing their market positioning and ability to benefit from the recovering pricing environment.
- Neutral: Nuvoco and ACC, reflecting limited upside in the near term.
- Reduce: Dalmia Bharat, due to valuation concerns and relatively weaker performance.
Nomura’s analysis underscores early signs of price recovery in the cement market, with region-specific variations and a preference for established players with robust fundamentals.
Disclaimer: The above analysis is based on inputs provided and is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Readers are advised to consult their financial advisors before making any investment decisions.
