The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Thursday raised its global oil demand forecast for 2025 to 740,000 barrels per day (bpd), compared to 680,000 bpd in its previous report, while keeping the 2026 outlook steady at 700,000 bpd.
However, supply is projected to surge at a much faster pace. The IEA expects global production to grow by 2.7 million bpd in 2025, following OPEC+’s decision to add 137,000 bpd from October. The agency noted that actual near-term additions may be closer to 40,000 bpd as some members approach capacity limits.
The IEA warned that the market is heading towards a record surplus by 2026, with higher OPEC+ supply, sluggish demand growth, and the potential impact of sanctions on Russia and Iran shaping the balance. This combination raises concerns about an “increasingly bloated oil market” in the years ahead.
