Hindalco Industries shares jumped 3.16% to ₹1,081.40 on the NSE on Wednesday, May 20, making it among the top gainers on the index, as investors parsed Novelis Q4 FY26 earnings released overnight alongside a bullish aluminium price call from Citi that put the metal on track for $4,000 per tonne within three months.
Why is Hindalco stock rising today
Three catalysts are converging. First, Novelis — Hindalco’s wholly-owned US subsidiary and the world’s largest aluminium rolling and recycling company — reported its Q4 FY26 results on Tuesday, with net sales rising 4% year-on-year to $4.787 billion. Second, Novelis CEO Steve Fisher confirmed that the Oswego hot mill restart is expected within the next few weeks, well ahead of the earlier estimate of end-June — removing what had been the most significant operational overhang on the stock. Third, Citi issued a call describing the current aluminium setup as the most bullish in roughly 50 years, projecting prices will climb to $4,000 per tonne over the next three months.
Novelis Q4 FY26 results: What the numbers say
The headline loss — a net loss of $84 million attributable to common shareholders versus a net income of $294 million in the prior year — is almost entirely a function of the Oswego fires. The company recorded $630 crore in pre-tax net losses tied to the September and November 2025 fire incidents at its Oswego, New York plant. Stripping out the fire impact, the underlying business held up: adjusted EBITDA came in at $459 million, down only 3% year-on-year, while adjusted EBITDA per tonne shipped rose 10% year-on-year to $544, reflecting the benefit of higher average aluminium prices.
Total rolled product shipments fell 12% year-on-year to 844 kilotonnes, driven by the production disruptions at Oswego and softer demand in some speciality markets attributed to geopolitical conditions. Higher average aluminium prices partially offset the volume shortfall in revenue terms.
Oswego restart: The key overhang being lifted
The Oswego plant suffered two major fire incidents — the first on September 16, 2025, and the second on November 20 — both confined to the hot mill area with no injuries reported. Recovery efforts have progressed faster than anticipated, with commissioning activities now ramping up. CFO Dev Ahuja acknowledged temporary pressure on net leverage from both the Oswego fires and capital spending at Bay Minette, but added that the company has a clear path to positive free cash flow by the end of FY2027 and subsequent deleveraging, contingent on Oswego restarting and Bay Minette completing commissioning.
Citi’s aluminium call and what it means for Hindalco
Citi’s assessment — the most bullish aluminium setup in about five decades — directly underpins the investment thesis for Hindalco, which derives a substantial portion of its consolidated revenue from aluminium operations in India alongside Novelis internationally. Higher LME aluminium prices feed directly into realisations for both segments. A move to $4,000 per tonne would represent a material tailwind for FY27 earnings, particularly as Oswego volumes normalise and Bay Minette comes online.
Hindalco standalone Q4 FY26 results: What to watch on May 22
Hindalco’s own board meeting to approve standalone and consolidated Q4 FY26 financial results is scheduled for Friday, May 22, 2026. The board will also consider a recommendation on final dividend for FY26. On a comparable basis, the company had reported a consolidated net profit of ₹5,283 crore and revenue of ₹64,890 crore in Q4 FY25, up 66% and 16% year-on-year respectively. The India business will be the primary variable to watch — aluminium and copper price tailwinds domestically have been favourable, and any beat on the Indian operations can cushion whatever residual drag Novelis carries from the Oswego disruption.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.