Goldman Sachs has maintained its ‘Neutral’ rating on BSE Ltd. with a target price of ₹5,340, warning that a potential regulatory shift in weekly options expiry dates could pose a downside risk to the exchange’s growing derivatives business.
According to media reports cited by the brokerage, SEBI may soon approve Tuesday as the expiry day for NSE’s index derivatives, a move that could directly affect BSE’s derivative volumes. If this shift is implemented, BSE would likely have to move its expiry day to Thursday, which is currently used by NSE.
Market share impact could be significant
Goldman Sachs noted that BSE’s recent success in index options volumes has been partly aided by the Tuesday expiry day, which gave it an uncontested advantage on that day of the week. So far in 2025, about 24% of India’s index options premium volume has been traded on Tuesdays, significantly higher than other weekdays (which see 16–19%).
If NSE begins operating on Tuesdays as well, BSE’s market share in index options premiums could fall by 3–4 percentage points, from the current 22.2% to 18.8%, representing a potential 15% decline in its market share, based on year-to-date trends.
Awaiting SEBI’s final decision
While the final decision rests with SEBI, the brokerage emphasized that even the possibility of a change introduces regulatory uncertainty for BSE. The exchange’s rapid derivatives growth over the past year has been a key driver of sentiment and valuation rerating, making it more sensitive to any policy-driven structural shifts.
Goldman Sachs did not revise its earnings estimates at this stage but noted that the risk-reward remains balanced given the potential headwind.
Disclaimer: This article is based on the brokerage report by Goldman Sachs. It does not constitute investment advice. Investors are advised to consult their financial advisors before making any investment decisions.
