Indian equity markets are likely to open with a sharp upside as the GIFT Nifty indicates a 500-point gap-up start, following a surprise 90-day pause on tariffs by former U.S. President Donald Trump. The pause will apply to all non-retaliating countries, giving temporary relief to global trade tensions. However, Trump simultaneously announced an immediate hike in tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%, escalating the trade standoff with Beijing. In response, China urged the U.S. to meet it halfway to resolve tensions but warned of a firm counter if diplomacy fails.
Despite this volatile global backdrop, optimism is running high in Indian markets. The GIFT Nifty, reflecting optimism among traders, is pointing to a strong open, even as U.S. equity futures remain under pressure. The Dow futures slipped over 300 points in early trade after the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.5%, the S&P 500 dropped 3.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite shed 4.3% in yesterday’s session—erasing nearly half of their post-Wednesday gains.
Asian markets, too, opened in the red amid heightened geopolitical risks. Japan’s Nikkei tumbled over 5%, while other regional indices followed suit. The risk-off mood has pushed gold prices to a fresh record high of $3,171 per ounce, while crude oil prices retreated more than $2 per barrel and continue to trade below $64 on fears of slowing global demand.
Back home, the spotlight also remains on corporate earnings. Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) kicked off the Q4FY25 results season with a subdued performance. The IT major reported a sequential 1% decline in revenue in USD terms, missing CNBC-TV18 estimates of a 0.8% decline. Net profit and revenue both fell short of street expectations. However, TCS secured deal wins worth $12.2 billion during the quarter. Management said FY26 could be better than FY25, although near-term uncertainty remains.
As global volatility persists, market participants will keep a close eye on further developments in U.S.-China trade talks and any domestic cues from the upcoming earnings reports.
