Historical data shows that Budget Day movements in the Nifty 50 have been mixed, with no consistent bullish or bearish trend emerging over the years. On several occasions, markets have ended higher on Budget Day, while sharp declines have also been recorded during periods of policy disappointment or global uncertainty.
Over the last 15 years, the strongest Budget Day gain was seen on February 1, 2021, when the Nifty 50 surged 4.74%, driven by expectations of economic recovery and higher government spending. Other positive Budget Day performances include 2017 (+1.81%), 2022 (+1.37%), and 2010 (+1.29%).
On the downside, markets have also witnessed notable corrections. The sharpest fall came on February 1, 2020, when the index dropped 2.51%, while declines were also recorded in 2013 (-1.79%), 2019 full budget (-1.14%), and 2012 (-1.16%). More recent Budget Days, including 2023, 2024, and 2025, have seen relatively muted moves, largely within a narrow range.
Overall, the data highlights that Budget Day outcomes are highly event-specific, influenced by fiscal announcements, macroeconomic conditions, global cues, and investor positioning rather than any historical pattern.
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