Nomura in its latest note on India’s renewable energy sector said solar photovoltaic (PV) demand in the country is set to rise 1.4 times over FY25–28, underpinned by a 23% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in installed capacity and supportive government policies.
The brokerage, however, cautioned that with 100–110 GW of module manufacturing capacity additions expected, the industry could face oversupply pressures. In such a scenario, Nomura said backward-integrated players would be best placed to withstand pricing volatility and maintain margins. Export opportunities remain available for Indian manufacturers, though global competition and geopolitical risks could pose challenges.
On stock picks, Nomura maintained a buy rating on Waaree Energies with a target price of ₹3,710 per share, projecting a 43% EBITDA CAGR between FY25–28 driven by scale benefits and efficiency gains. It kept a neutral stance on Premier Energies, with a target of ₹1,100 per share, forecasting 31% EBITDA CAGR over the same period, largely from higher volumes.
Nomura said the growth trajectory of India’s solar industry will be shaped not only by domestic capacity expansion but also by the ability of leading players to capture export demand and manage potential supply gluts.
Disclaimer: This article is based on brokerage views as cited. The views expressed are those of the brokerage and do not represent investment advice.
