BPCL shares edged up 2% in today’s trade after HSBC released a sector outlook projecting that global oil and gas markets are likely to shift into a surplus by 2026. According to the brokerage, this would mark a long-awaited structural change that could meaningfully strengthen the operating environment for India’s oil marketing companies (OMCs), including Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd.
HSBC said that a sustained global surplus typically helps India disproportionately, given the country’s heavy reliance on energy imports. Lower volatility in crude prices tends to stabilise marketing margins, reduce input-cost pressures and improve earnings visibility for downstream companies like BPCL.
The report added that a more balanced supply landscape would also support higher utilisation of LNG import terminals and gas pipelines, potentially boosting throughput and improving the long-term profitability outlook for major OMCs. Within this framework, BPCL is seen as a key beneficiary of the expected rebalancing in global energy markets.
Reiterating confidence in India’s downstream sector, HSBC issued a buy rating on BPCL with a target price of ₹480, citing a healthier medium-term environment, improving demand trends and stronger operating leverage as global supply stabilises.
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