Shares of Biocon Ltd declined 0.33% to ₹328.80 on Monday despite bullish brokerage commentary and upside estimates of up to 30%. The stock, which closed at ₹329.90 in the previous session, saw muted investor reaction after a mixed set of quarterly results.
Brokerages Jefferies and Citi both maintain a “buy” rating on the stock with target prices of ₹370 and ₹430, implying a 12%–30% potential upside. Jefferies noted that Biocon beat Q4 estimates on higher supplies of gRevlimid but warned that volumes are expected to normalize soon. The firm also flagged a weak outlook for Syngene, trimming its FY26/27 EBITDA estimates by 9%.
Citi echoed the sentiment, calling Q4 performance weak, particularly highlighting a 300 basis point decline in ex-gRevlimid EBITDA margin. While generics grew 53% sequentially driven by gRevlimid, biosimilar growth was subdued despite strong market share gains in oncology.
Analysts remain watchful of Biocon’s upcoming equity fundraise and execution on five biosimilar launches over the next 12–18 months. Risks cited include a weak pricing environment, slower biosimilar market share gains, and delayed growth recovery in research services.
The global narrative may also play a role — former U.S. President Donald Trump stated he plans to sign an executive order to slash prescription drug prices by up to 80%, which could impact Indian pharma exporters.
Of the 18 analysts covering Biocon, 10 have a “buy”, 3 hold, and 5 recommend selling the stock.
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