The Reserve Bank of India has reaffirmed its commitment to ensuring adequate liquidity in the financial system, with Governor Sanjay Malhotra highlighting a daily average surplus of Rs 3 lakh crore since the last Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. This is a significant increase from the Rs 1.6 lakh crore average observed during the previous two months. The 100 basis point CRR cut announced earlier is also expected to further ease liquidity.
Malhotra noted that despite global uncertainties, India’s economic fundamentals remain strong. “Merchandise trade deficit has widened in Q1, and while gross FDI inflows remain steady for April–May, net FDI has moderated due to higher outward flows,” he said.
The RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.50% and maintained a neutral policy stance, citing evenly balanced risks.
GDP Outlook Unchanged at 6.5% for FY26
The RBI retained its real GDP growth forecast at 6.5% for FY26 with the following quarterly breakdown:
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Q1: 6.5%
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Q2: 6.7%
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Q3: 6.6%
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Q4: 6.3%
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Q1 FY27: 6.6%
CPI Inflation Projections Revised Downward
CPI inflation for FY26 is now projected at 3.1%, down from the earlier estimate of 3.7%. The revised quarterly estimates are:
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Q2 FY26: 2.1% (vs 3.4% earlier)
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Q3 FY26: 3.1% (vs 3.9%)
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Q4 FY26: 4.4% (unchanged)
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Q1 FY27: 4.9%
The Governor highlighted that core inflation has edged up slightly to 4.4%, largely due to a rally in gold prices, but headline inflation is expected to remain within the comfort zone through the fiscal year.
With growth projections intact and inflation seen easing, the RBI’s focus remains on maintaining monetary and financial stability while supporting growth with sufficient system liquidity.
