The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee will announce its rate decision tomorrow, April 8, 2026, at 10:00 AM IST, followed by a post-monetary policy press conference at 12:00 noon IST. Both events will be livestreamed on RBI’s official YouTube channel and the direct links are available now.

This is the most consequential RBI MPC announcement in years, arriving on the morning after Trump’s 8 PM ET Iran deadline expires, on a day when heavy strikes are being reported across multiple Iranian cities, WTI crude is at a 52-week high of $115.71, the rupee is at a record low near 95 per dollar, and input cost inflation is running at a 45-month high. Every word Governor Sanjay Malhotra says tomorrow will move markets.

Where to Watch RBI MPC Live — Direct Links

Monetary Policy Statement at 10:00 AM IST on April 8, 2026: youtube.com/live/74OvghfSQQ0

Post-Monetary Policy Press Conference at 12:00 noon IST on April 8, 2026: youtube.com/live/8Gjv3MbRloA

Both streams are on RBI’s official YouTube channel. The 10 AM statement is where the rate decision, stance change if any, and the Governor’s prepared remarks will be delivered. The 12 noon press conference is where journalists will question the Governor on the specifics of the decision, the inflation and growth outlook, the rupee’s record low, and the war’s economic impact on India.

The 12 noon press conference is often more market-moving than the 10 AM statement because it is where the nuance, the qualifications, and the forward guidance that markets trade on emerges through questioning.

What the RBI MPC Is Deciding Tomorrow

The RBI MPC meets every two months to set the benchmark repo rate and communicate its monetary policy stance. Tomorrow’s decision is the most difficult the committee has faced since the COVID pandemic because the Iran war has created a perfect stagflation trap that makes every policy option simultaneously dangerous.

The case for a rate cut is India’s slowing growth. The HSBC India Composite PMI fell to a three-and-a-half-year low of 57.0 in March. Domestic demand is slowing. The Iran war is directly constraining India’s service sector output, tourism, and market conditions as panel members explicitly told the PMI survey. A rate cut would support growth, reduce borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, and provide some relief to an economy absorbing the war’s shock.

The case against a rate cut is inflation. Input cost inflation hit a 45-month high in March driven by fuel, transport, and logistics costs from the war. The rupee at 95 per dollar is making every import more expensive. Skymet has just forecast a below normal 2026 monsoon that threatens food inflation. And the Federal Reserve has completely abandoned its rate cut plans for 2026, meaning an RBI cut widens the India-US interest rate differential in a way that could accelerate FII outflows and weaken the rupee further beyond its already record low.

The RBI cannot cut without risking the rupee and inflation. It cannot hold without accepting that growth slows further. It cannot hike without further choking an already stressed economy. This is the context in which tomorrow’s 10 AM announcement arrives.

What the Market Expects

Market consensus ahead of tomorrow’s MPC is divided between a hold with a dovish tilt in language and a 25 basis point cut accompanied by a change in stance from withdrawal of accommodation to neutral or accommodative. The currency market’s pricing of the rupee near 95 per dollar reflects the assumption that rate cuts, if they come, will be modest and carefully communicated to avoid triggering a sharp additional rupee depreciation.

The bond market has been watching the 10-year government securities yield as the primary indicator of rate cut expectations. Any MPC rate cut tomorrow would be expected to drive bond yields lower, providing some relief to the state government borrowing programme of Rs 2,54,509 crore for the April to June quarter that the RBI published last week.

The Broader Context for Tomorrow’s Statement

Tomorrow’s RBI MPC announcement is not happening in isolation. It is happening the morning after the most intense night of strikes across Iran, the morning after Trump’s deadline expires, and the morning when Indian markets open to price both the war’s latest developments and the RBI’s response to the economic damage the war has already caused.

Governor Sanjay Malhotra’s press conference at 12 noon will inevitably address the Iran war’s economic impact on India directly. His comments on the rupee, on inflation management, on growth outlook, and on whether the RBI has the tools to manage the current environment will be among the most important public statements made by any Indian economic policymaker since February 28.

Set two alarms. 10:00 AM for the rate decision. 12:00 noon for the press conference where the real questions get asked.

Both livestreams are available now at the links above.

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