India’s metals and mining sector is set to deliver a strong earnings rebound in Q4FY25, with steel majors clocking higher volumes and benefiting from softer input costs, according to Nuvama Institutional Equities’ earnings preview. The brokerage expects a sequential uptick in EBITDA across major ferrous names, with non-ferrous firms showing a mixed performance.
Ferrous companies, led by Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL), are forecast to report an average 13% quarter-on-quarter rise in EBITDA. SAIL is projected to lead the pack with a 30% QoQ growth on the back of a sharp 20% rise in volumes to 5.3 million tonnes and lower raw material costs. JSW Steel and Tata Steel are also expected to see around 14% growth in EBITDA sequentially, while Jindal Steel & Power Ltd (JSPL) may post 8% growth.
In contrast, Jindal Stainless is likely to report a 16% decline in EBITDA due to weaker stainless steel prices and an unfavourable product mix. Tata Steel’s Netherlands operation may break even at the EBITDA level, though losses are expected to persist in its UK business.
Among non-ferrous players, Hindalco Industries is poised to outperform with an estimated 20% rise in EBITDA, supported by higher aluminium prices, favourable forex movement, and stronger profitability at its US-based subsidiary Novelis. While Novelis’ adjusted EBITDA per tonne is expected to rise 21% QoQ due to better mix and pricing, copper profitability may drag overall performance slightly.
Hindustan Zinc is expected to report flat sequential EBITDA as gains from lower cost of production (CoP) are offset by weaker zinc and lead prices. Vedanta, meanwhile, is likely to post a modest 2% decline in EBITDA due to higher alumina costs and a broad-based weakness in commodity prices across zinc, oil & gas, and iron ore.
In the mining segment, NMDC is likely to post flat YoY EBITDA with a marginal 1% rise in sales volumes to 12.7 million tonnes. Average realisations are expected to remain stable. Coal India is likely to post an 11% YoY EBITDA growth aided by a 5% decline in employee costs, while GMDC is projected to deliver flat EBITDA as higher volumes are offset by lower realisations.
Nuvama has named SAIL and Hindalco as the quarter’s standout performers, while Jindal Stainless is expected to underperform due to challenging product dynamics.
Disclaimer: The above views are of the broker’s and not the author or the publication’s. Please make any and every investment decision after consulting your financial advisor.
