Iran and Pakistan are still exchanging diplomatic messages but there is no information on a new round of US-Iran peace talks, a diplomatic source told Iran’s state news agency IRNA on Tuesday — a statement that introduces uncertainty into the Thursday talks timeline reported by the Associated Press earlier in the day and reflects the fluid and unconfirmed nature of the current diplomatic process.
The IRNA report and the AP report are not necessarily contradictory but they are in tension. The AP cited three sources saying discussions about a new round were still underway, with a diplomat from one mediating country going further to say Tehran and Washington had agreed in principle to meet again. A US official told AP that Thursday was being discussed but venue and timing had not been decided. IRNA’s diplomatic source is now saying Iran and Pakistan are messaging but there is no information on a new round — which could mean the agreement in principle the AP reported has not yet been translated into confirmed logistics, or that different diplomatic channels are giving different readings of the same fluid situation.
The distinction matters because in a negotiation of this complexity and sensitivity, the gap between an agreement in principle to talk and a confirmed meeting with a venue, date, and delegation is where diplomatic processes most frequently collapse. The Islamabad talks themselves were agreed in principle before they were confirmed, and a Pakistani government source told Reuters that even in the middle of those talks there was strong hope of a breakthrough before things changed very quickly. The speed with which near-agreements have evaporated throughout this conflict is the context in which IRNA’s no information characterisation should be read.
The continued Pakistan-Iran messaging is the genuinely constructive element of Tuesday’s diplomatic picture. Pakistan remains the primary intermediary between Washington and Tehran — it hosted the Islamabad talks, its Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has maintained direct communication with both sides throughout the conflict, and the continued exchange of messages means the back channel has not gone dark despite the public escalation of Monday. Iran declaring a permanent Hormuz control mechanism, threatening Gulf ports, and calling US restrictions piracy on Monday did not terminate the messaging with Islamabad — which is precisely what the bazaar characterisation offered by the regional source to Axios was describing.
The picture on Tuesday evening is therefore one of active but unconfirmed diplomacy. Iran’s Pezeshkian has called Macron and told him American maximalism blocked Islamabad. Pakistan and Iran are still messaging. The AP says Thursday talks are being discussed. IRNA says there is no information on a new round. Trump said earlier that Iran called and wants to work a deal. Vance said Iran moved in America’s direction but not far enough. Iran’s envoy confirmed willingness to continue discussions. And the April 21 ceasefire deadline is now seven days away.
For energy markets, the IRNA report introduces downside risk to the diplomatic optimism that the AP’s Thursday talks story had briefly created. Brent above $102 per barrel reflects a market that is not pricing in a near-term diplomatic resolution — and the IRNA diplomatic source’s no information characterisation keeps that pessimistic pricing in place. The IEA confirmed on Tuesday that Hormuz flows have collapsed from 20 million to 3.8 million barrels per day and that restoring shipping through the strait is the single biggest factor that would ease energy supply stress and lower fuel prices. Every day of diplomatic uncertainty is another day of that 3.8 million barrel per day reality persisting.
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