UBS has reiterated its buy rating on Reliance Industries with a target price of ₹1,820, stating that the company’s refining business is poised for a meaningful improvement in earnings over the next 18 months. The brokerage noted that the Singapore benchmark is no longer a reliable reflection of actual refining margins, particularly for diesel-heavy refiners such as Reliance, and believes real-world spreads remain stronger than headline indicators suggest.
According to UBS, Reliance’s diversified crude sourcing strategy continues to limit the impact of geopolitical disruptions, enhancing earnings visibility for its O2C business. The brokerage has built in a notable improvement in O2C EBITDA—from ₹29,500 crore in the first half of FY26 to ₹34,000 crore in the second half—and expects this momentum to accelerate substantially, projecting O2C EBITDA of ₹64,800 crore in FY27.
UBS said that refining strength, supported by favourable middle distillate spreads, will remain a key driver of earnings, while Reliance’s positioning across downstream products offers additional resilience amid global volatility.
Disclaimer: The views above are those of UBS. Business Upturn does not endorse them. Please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
